Our betting expert predicts AC Milan to treat San Siro to a low-scoring victory against Carlos Cuesta’s mid-table Parma.
Best bets for AC Milan vs Parma
- Both teams to score - Yes, at odds of 2.20 on Betway
- Second-half – Over 1.5 goals, at odds of 2.00 on Betway
- First-half draw, at odds of 2.40 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: AC Milan 2-1 Parma
- Goalscorers prediction: AC Milan: Rafael Leao, Luka Modric; Parma: Gabriel Strefezza
AC Milan dropped vital points at San Siro against Cesc Fabregas’ Como. Nico Paz scored the opening goal, giving the visitors a first-half lead. Rafael Leao equalised at the 60-minute mark, allowing Milan to avoid their first loss to Como since 1985.
Although they narrowly avoided defeat, the result was a major blow to the Rossoneri’s Scudetto ambitions. Inter Milan now hold a seven-point lead at the top of the standings with one-third of the season remaining.
Meanwhile, Parma enter this fixture in 12th place, encouraged by back-to-back wins. The Crociati ended a difficult four-match winless streak by defeating Bologna 1-0 and Hellas Verona 2-1 at home. The latter victory was sealed by Mateo Pellegrini’s 93rd-minute header.
While these results are positive, neither of them possess Milan’s quality. Moreover, playing at the San Siro represents a much greater challenge.
Carlos Cuesta’s men have rediscovered their goalscoring form, though their two recent wins were achieved by single-goal margins. It’s not surprising that they’re the league’s second-worst scorers with only 18 goals in 25 games.
Milan have also struggled to score at times. However, their individual quality and defensive solidity at home should be enough to defeat Parma, even if by a small margin.
Probable lineups for AC Milan vs Parma
AC Milan expected lineup: Maignan, Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Athekame, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi, Loftus-Cheek, Nkunku
Parma expected lineup: Corvi, Del Prato, Circati, Valenti, Keita, Britschgi, Bernabe, Sorensen, Valeri, Strefezza, Pellegrino
Scoring opportunities for both sides at San Siro
AC Milan have scored in all but one of their 25 league games this campaign, with the sole exception being a goalless draw with Juventus.
With 41 scored goals, the team currently rank third in Serie A for total goals, though they have found it difficult to maintain clean sheets. Both teams have scored in six of Milan's last 10 league games, including their two most recent fixtures. While they often start slowly, individual quality allows them to change the course of a game quickly.
Parma were beaten 4-1 by Juventus earlier this month, but have scored consistently since. This marks a significant improvement from January, when they managed only two goals in six league matches.
Historical data also favours this prediction. Each of the last six meetings between these sides has produced goals at both ends. Given Parma’s improved offensive form and Milan’s occasional defensive lapses, there is value in backing both to score.
- AC Milan vs Parma Prediction 1: Both teams to score - Yes, at odds of 2.20 on Betway
Expecting a decisive second half
The Rossoneri tend to finish games strongly. In three of their last five fixtures, goals scored in the final 30 minutes proved to be decisive. Notable examples include Rafael Leao’s equalizer against Como and late goals from Niclas Fullkrug and Luka Modric to defeat Lecce and Pisa, respectively.
Statistically, five of Milan’s last eight goals across five matches were recorded during the second period. This pattern suggests that Milan handle the pressure early and then score when their opponents tire.
Parma follow a similar trend, as they’ve scored three of their last four goals after the break. Both winning goals in their recent successive wins arrived in the second period, demonstrating the team's ability to grow into matches.
The opening exchanges are expected to be cagey, with both teams probing for weaknesses without overcommitting. However, as the game progresses, the match is expected to open up for more scoring opportunities.
- AC Milan vs Parma Prediction 2: Second-half – Over 1.5 goals, at odds of 2.00 on Betway
Cagey opening half
AC Milan have established a trend of starting matches slowly, having failed to score in the first half in three of their last five games. When they did manage to score early, they typically maintained a clean sheet until the interval.
Statistics show that Milan has won eight of their 15 league games this season after drawing in the first half. They have overturned a first-half deficit only once. While they rarely fall behind early, they also do not frequently take early leads.
Similarly, Parma approach the opening of matches with caution. They have led at halftime only three times throughout the entire campaign and have reached the interval on level terms in 14 matches.
Consequently, both Milan and Parma are expected to start slowly, utilizing defensive structures to avoid early danger. The first half will likely be a tactical stalemate rather than a goalfest.
- AC Milan vs Parma Prediction 3: First-half draw, at odds of 2.40 on Betway