Our betting expert expects the hosts to be level at the break, but Barca to ultimately claim a narrow win, with Robert Lewandowski scoring.
Best bets for Sevilla vs Barcelona
- Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.78 on Betway
- 1st Half - Draw at odds of 2.70 on Betway
- Robert Lewandowski to score anytime at odds of 1.91 on Betway
Barcelona are expected to win 2-1 against Sevilla.
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
Barcelona suffered their first major setback of the season in midweek. A deserved 2-1 defeat against what was not a full-strength PSG side suggests there is still room for improvement.
Prior to that, they’d been almost flawless, winning seven of their opening eight competitive fixtures. They top La Liga following a 2-1 win over Real Sociedad last weekend.
Sevilla have made a reasonable start to life under their new boss Matias Almeyda. Three wins and three defeats so far for the Argentine mean the Andalusians are in mid-table. All of those victories came away from home, including a 1-0 win at Rayo Vallecano last time out.
Probable lineups for Sevilla vs Barcelona
Sevilla expected lineup: Vlachodimos, Marcao, Cardoso, Azpilicueta, Suazo, Agoume, Mendy, Carmona, Alexis, Vargas, Adams
Barcelona expected lineup: Szczesny, Balde, Christensen, Araujo, Kounde, Pedri, De Jong, Rashford, Olmo, Yamal, Lewandowski
Sevilla to keep it tight
The hosts parted ways with key winger Dodi Lukebakio in the summer, and seem to have switched to a more physical style. They’ve competed well in most games, but are creating just 0.74 xG per 90 minutes on average. Only Getafe have a worse record in the Spanish top flight, and they’ll surely approach this in quite a conservative manner.
Barcelona were far from their best in midweek. They only managed three shots on target, and 1.27 xG in their loss to the European champions.
While credit must go to PSG who won the midfield battle, fatigue may also have been a factor, with Hansi Flick short on options in some positions. That could be a problem again on Sunday in Seville, with Raphinha, Fermin Lopez and Gavi all out due to injuries.
Four of the last five Barca games in all competitions have produced three or fewer goals. You can back a repeat here with an implied probability of 56.2%.
- Sevilla vs Barcelona Bet 1: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.78 on Betway
Level at the break
We probably shouldn’t expect either side to come out flying in this game. Sevilla’s initial priority will be to keep it tight and get a foothold in the contest.
The base of their midfield is quite strong, thanks to Batista Mendy and Lucien Agoume. That should offer their defence some protection, and make it harder for the influential Pedri to find space to operate in.
Barcelona may need to be patient, and it might take more than 45 minutes to break through. Only 33% of the Catalan team’s league goals this term have come in the first half.
Meanwhile, 80% of their conceded goals have come before the break. That suggests Sevilla can be competitive in the first half of this match.
- Sevilla vs Barcelona Bet 2: 1st Half - Draw at odds of 2.70 on Betway
Lewandowski to return with a goal
Ferran Torres once again started ahead of Lewandowski against PSG. That strongly suggests the Spaniard is now the preferred option up top in the big games. However, we will still see a fair amount of rotation, and the Polish international is expected to return on Sunday.
Lewandowski’s injury contributed to Ferran getting his chance, which he certainly took. The veteran forward continues to deliver, however. Despite only starting twice, the 37-year-old has netted four times in La Liga already, at a rate of a goal every 64 minutes.
With Marcus Rashford and Lamine Yamal on the flanks, he is benefitting from excellent service from the wide areas. You can back Lewandowski to score in this game with an implied probability of 52.4%.
- Sevilla vs Barcelona Bet 3: Robert Lewandowski to score anytime at odds of 1.91 on Betway