On Saturday, they host Borussia Dortmund. We explain why the value sits on BVB and the Over 3.5 Goals line this weekend.
| Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund betting markets | Odds |
| Dortmund to win | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.90 |
Odds are courtesy of 10bet and are subject to change
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Goals are the obvious angle for upcoming Stuttgart games
Dortmund visit the MHP Arena on Saturday, encouraged by Stuttgart’s apparent defensive vulnerabilities.
With eight goals conceded in three games, it’s no surprise that VfB have just three points from their opening three Bundesliga matches.
Fabian Bredlow is being kept busy: With Dennis Seimen out until October, back-up keeper Fabian Bredlow is being overworked. 65% of opponents’ goal attempts have come from inside the penalty box, suggesting VfB are giving up good goalscoring opportunities. Bredlow is also the fourth-highest Bundesliga keeper for saves per 90 (4.7).
It’s clear Stuttgart are giving up plenty of chances to opponents. However, they are still creating enough of their own to make goals lines the more convincing betting angle.
Stuttgart opened the 2026/27 campaign with a 4-1 win over FC Köln before a 5-1 thrashing at the hands of Bayern Munich.
That was followed by last Saturday’s 2-1 loss at Hoffenheim. This run of games has yielded 14 goals, with both teams scoring in all three games. VfB are yet to keep a clean sheet.
Why the goals are likely to come at both ends: VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund sit inside the Bundesliga’s top 5 for the most big chances missed. Stuttgart sit 3rd with 10 big chances missed, while Dortmund have missed 7 big chances in 3 games.
Against Hoffenheim, Stuttgart registered 2.16 xG from their 16 shots, 5 of which were on target. It’s clear that VfB still carry a threat going forward. The issue was the 2.76 xG and 8 shots on target they conceded at the SNP Arena.
Across these first three games, Sebastian Hoeneß’s side are 4th in the Bundesliga xG table (6.40). For a team to sit 4th in xG and 18th in xGA, there must be plenty of goalmouth action at both ends. That’s why the Over 3.5 Goals line appeals greatly here.
The Over 3.5 Goals line has landed in 4 of the last 7 match-ups between these sides in Stuttgart. We can back it again this weekend at a 50% implied probability.
The warning signs were there for Stuttgart in pre-season. In their 2-2 draw with Ligue 1 side Paris FC, Stuttgart pushed hard for more goals after taking the lead. In doing so, they left space for Paris to transition behind them twice.
Why there’s value in backing Dortmund to get the job done on Saturday
Dortmund bring plenty of attacking intent this weekend. They’ve registered 6.3 shots on target per 90. They also have a shot conversion rate of 17.8%, which is far superior to Stuttgart’s 12.2%.
They’ve outperformed their xG so far this term, scoring 8 goals to their 5.3 xG across their opening matches.
BVB’s recent 3-0 home win over Paderborn reinforced their attacking prowess. Fabio Silva opened the scoring before Felix Nmecha added Dortmund’s second and third goals.
Niko Kovac’s men have also scored three times in each of their last two Bundesliga games. Their 3-2 come-from-behind win at Hoffenheim was prior to the visit of Paderborn.
While Dortmund have scored an average of 2.67 goals per game, their defensive record is far superior to Stuttgart’s. They’ve kept clean sheets in 2 of their first 3 games, with the sixth-best xGA in the league (3.2).
As a defensive unit, they are hitting the right metrics. They are top of the Bundesliga charts for interceptions per 90 (15.3). They are also 4th in the league for clearances per 90 (36.3) and 3rd for tackles per 90 (19).
The Paderborn result was less convincing from a data perspective than the 3-0 scoreline suggests. The visitors led for touches in the opposition penalty area by 15-8 in the first period.
This suggests Stuttgart can still create opportunities, further adding to the Over 3.5 Goals angle.
Dortmund’s away win price is worth a glance as a secondary alternative if it stays at the longer end of the market. That’s simply due to their form being stronger than Stuttgart’s. Dortmund have also won 5 of their last 9 visits to the MHP Arena.
Still, the strongest pre-match betting angle is Over 3.5 Goals, followed by a back of BVB.