The Biancocelesti are currently second on 16 points, while fourth-placed Cagliari have defied all expectations with their 13-point haul.
Serie A top-four odds: The outsiders worth backing in the race for Europe
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Lazio
Serie A have been the most unpredictable of the major leagues in Europe in recent years. No reigning champions have successfully defended their title since 2020. The race for Champions League qualification also tends to throw up some surprises, with Milan and Juventus missing out last term as best examples.
Milan and Juve have started slowly again this season as well. The current stats suggest taht it is seriously worth considering an outside candidate in the top-four market. Second-placed Lazio look to offer the best value based on current prices.
They secured a 3-1 win over Monza last time out, their fifth victory in six matches. That made it their best-ever start to a Serie A campaign ever. It came as a real surprise, given that pre-season expectations were extremely low.
Lazio were constrained by a mandated net-zero transfer window, which meant their sales had to balance new signings. Despite the constrains, they still managed to pull off a steal by signing Davide Frattesi from Inter.
The 27-year-old made a dream start, scoring in his first three Serie A outings for the Biancocelesti. The midfielder scored the winning goal in 1-0 victories over Bologna and Genoa, allowing his new team to hit the ground running. He was also on target in the 2-1 victory at Udinese on matchday three.
Having a national-team calibre player as a figurehead in the centre of the pitch has renewed their optimism. Their Coppa Italia elimination in August also means Gennaro Gattuso’s men have only one competition to focus on.
That could give Lazio a real edge in the top-four race. Surprisingly, given their fine form, they can currently be backed at longer odds than just three weeks ago.
Cagliari
While Inter and Roma are both unbeaten in the league and unlikely to fall away, no other team looks like a concrete top-four pick. Compared to the same stage last season, Juventus and Milan are each one point worse off. However, their current points-per-game averages still leaves both on course to hit around 70 points or more.
In the past three seasons, Serie A’s fourth-placed finishers have all ended up with between 69 and 71 points. That makes the 70-point mark a decent benchmark figure for clubs to aim for.
While it is very early days in the season, Cagliari’s average of 2.17 points per game leaves them firmly on the right track to hit that mark. With just three goals conceded in six matches, an outstanding rearguard effort has been the key for their success. Alongside Roma, they boast the joint-best defensive record in Europe’s top five leagues.
Goalkeeper Elia Caprile has been the main reason for that. He’s averaging 4.7 saves per match, the second-highest tally in Serie A.
The 25-year-old made nine stops as Cagliari held Juventus at bay until Randal Kolo Muani’s 81st-minute equaliser in their last game. The Rossoblu hung on for a creditable 1-1 draw, having taken the lead thanks to Daniel Maldini’s fourth goal of the campaign.
This is clearly a team that knows how to stay humble and operate effectively without the ball. The Sardinians rank bottom for possession in Serie A, with 38.2%, but they have been clinical in the final third.
They’re still only given a 2% chance of finishing in the top four by the bookmakers. With favourable fixtures coming up, now is probably the time to back Cagliari if you see them lasting the course.
However, it would be a huge surprise if they could repeat this form over the course of 38 games. There is a clear dependence on their goalkeeper and they only rank 15th in Serie A with 5.8 xPTS (expected points). That suggests they are currently massively overachieving.
Atalanta
With only nine points from six matches, Atalanta haven’t really set the world ablaze so far this season. However, they are regular top-four contenders and could make up ground in favourable upcoming home fixtures against Frosinone and Parma. Victories in those matches should see their top-four odds shorten slightly.
La Dea are used to playing in the Champions League and Europa League, which they won in 2024. That suggests their Conference League commitments this season should be manageable.
On paper, their squad is stronger than that of both Lazio and Cagliari. It’s arguably better than it was last season, when Atalanta finished 12 points off the Champions League places. The arrivals of Franck Kessie and Gianluca Gaetano should help close that gap, while there have been few major departures.
Maurizio Sarri is an experienced coach who is capable of getting more out of a squad packed full of international talent. His team has kept just one clean sheet so far in Serie A. However, they have faced Roma, Juventus and Cagliari.
The 67-year-old is yet to settle on a formation, with shifts between a three-man defence and a 4-3-3 structure. They’ve looked blunt in attack at times, but a 3-1 success over Venezia on Monday was their best offensive performance to date.
With five big chances created in that match, it could prove a turning point in Atalanta’s campaign. With that in mind, La Dea look to offer value with an implied probability of 9% to finish in the top four.