Paraguay vs Australia. Algeria vs Austria. Four teams walk onto the pitch knowing a draw is enough to progress. Will they settle for a stalemate?
2026 World Cup Group D & J | Betting markets | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Paraguay vs Australia | Draw | 2.35 |
| BTTS - Yes | 2.20 | |
| Austria vs Algeria | Draw | 2.29 |
| Algeria to win first half | 4.00 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
If you’re following the World Cup through Betway, here are a few useful pages during the tournament:
- See how the welcome bonus can be used through the Betway promo code page, including access to live World Cup markets and tournament-specific specials.
- Use the step-by-step Betway registration guide to get set up quickly and start exploring live betting, match odds, and in-play World Cup features.
- Compare ongoing promotions and tournament betting value in our guide to the Best World Cup Betting Offers, with updates throughout the competition.
When a draw suits all
The 2026 World Cup group stage has delivered a tricky group-stage equation ahead of the knockout phase.
In Group D, Paraguay and Australia meet in Santa Clara. A draw would send the Socceroos through as runners-up and keep Paraguay in the race for the best third-placed spot.
In Group J, Algeria and Austria face off in Kansas City with the same equation. A draw sends Austria through on goal difference and keeps Algeria well-positioned to advance as a top third‑placed team.
What many would call a conspiracy is just simple mathematics.
The most notorious precedent is the ‘Disgrace of Gijon’ at the 1982 World Cup in Spain. West Germany beat Austria 1‑0 in a result that conveniently sent both nations through to the knockouts at Algeria's expense. The final shot of that fixture came in the 54th minute. Neither side created a single chance in the final 36 minutes.
In 2018, England profited from losing their final group game to Belgium and finishing second. The Three Lions faced Colombia, Sweden and Croatia in the knockouts, while the Red Devils played Brazil, Japan and France. Teams can choose to play towards a more favourable path through the knockouts.
More recently, at Euro 2024, Romania and Slovakia played out a mutually beneficial 1‑1 draw, with both goals arriving in the first half. After the break, with progression all but secured, the second half produced just six shots and 0.21 xG.
As it stands, Austria are poised to meet favourites and reigning European champions Spain in the last 32. Algeria are in line to face USA.
Meanwhile, Paraguay and Australia will take on either Germany, Egypt, Iran, Belgium or New Zealand, depending on where they finish. Yet, that could change as well.
A stalemate that suits both Paraguay and Australia
Australia are in second place after group winners USA, thanks to their superior goal difference. The Socceroos have already shown their defensive discipline, conceding just twice across the group stage. Six of Australia's last eight World Cup matches have stayed under 2.5 goals. With qualification on the line, Graham Arnold's side have every reason to sit deep and frustrate their opponents.
Paraguay, however, are not desperate. With three points, they are well-positioned to advance as one of the eight best third‑placed teams. They currently sit fifth in the top third-placed sides table.
Their defensive record in qualifying speaks for itself - just 10 goals conceded in 18 qualifiers. Only Ecuador have conceded fewer in South America. They have also registered just 0.54 expected goals in their opening two games. This points to a side not prone to taking unnecessary risks in attack.
Since 2000, two of their three encounters have seen both teams score. However, this is a different context. Neither side needs to win. Both know a draw is enough.
In matches where both sides are content with a point, the opening exchanges can be surprisingly direct. At Euro 2024, Romania and Slovakia shared two first‑half goals before seeing out the match.
Both sides have shown they are capable of scoring. Australia put two past Turkey, who are now eliminated. Paraguay managed a consolation against the USA.
If either side takes an early lead, the other will be forced to push forward, creating space at the back. The market expects a cagey affair, but the history of such convenient stalemates suggests early goals are not out of the question.
Austria and Algeria in a calculated stand-off
Austria hold the aces, again, thanks to their superior goal difference over Algeria. A draw secures second place. Ralf Rangnick's side are resilient despite their latest 2-0 loss to Argentina. They know exactly what is required.
Algeria's situation is more urgent. They need a win to take second place, but a draw would still leave them in a strong position to qualify as a top third‑placed team. They sit fourth in the third-placed team rankings.
The underlying tactical framework is clear. Austria are a counter‑attacking side, comfortable without the ball and dangerous in transition. Against an Algeria side that must win, Austria's setup is perfectly suited to absorb pressure and hit on the break. However, they also know that a draw is enough, which may temper their attacking intent.
After Lionel Messi’s hat-trick in their opener, Vladimir Petković's side bounced back against Jordan. They came from behind, beating the debutants 2‑1 and subsequently eliminating them from the tournament.
Algeria have historically struggled when conceding first. Across 10 previous World Cup matches where they conceded the opener, they never came back to win.
Furthermore, the 1982 history between these nations is impossible to avoid. Austria were part of the infamous match at El Molinon that eliminated Algeria. Exactly 44 years later, the Fennecs have a chance at redemption. However, revenge is unlikely to stand up to the cold mathematics of qualification.
Algeria, having secured their first three points of the tournament, will be inspired to strike first. Austria, by contrast, are low on morale after Lionel Messi's brace condemned them to a 2‑0 defeat. They know a draw is enough. Das Team can afford to sit back, absorb pressure, and wait for the game to settle.
Algeria need to take an early lead, and Austria are willing to concede possession. This creates a scenario where the North Africans could strike first.
Four teams, two matches, and one result that suits them all. The bookmakers have priced the draws as favourites. It may once again have history on its side.