Our betting expert expects the champions to narrowly beat the improved hosts in a tight affair, giving Toulouse their first defeat of the campaign.
Best bets for Toulouse vs PSG
- BTTS - No 1.93 on Betway
- First half 1x2 - Draw 2.70 on Betway
- Anytime goalscorer - Fabian Ruiz 5.60 on Betway
We expect a 1-0 win for PSG.
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
After a winless pre-season, Toulouse seem to have made a strong start in Ligue 1. The Violets are actually above PSG in the standings after gameweek two. However, their true test will be this Saturday when they host the champions at the Stadium de Toulouse.
Last season was disappointing for the host, as they finished in 10th, winning just 11 league matches all season. However, it seems that Carles Martínez Novell’s men are starting to find their form. They will aim to return to Europe, a level they reached a couple of seasons ago.
Meanwhile, PSG will be eager to have another dominant Ligue 1 campaign, much like the previous one, where they clinched the title with a massive 19-point lead. They’ve already secured the UEFA Super Cup, overcoming a tough challenge from Tottenham.
Luis Enrique’s troops have been clinical in the league so far, having registered two 1-0 victories. They are currently in third place, just one spot behind Saturday’s hosts.
Probable lineups for Toulouse vs PSG
Toulouse expected lineup: Restes; Canvot, Cresswell, McKenzie; Sidibé, Cásseres Jr., Sauer, Methalie; Dønnum, Gboho, Edjouma
PSG expected lineup: Chevalier; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz; Doué, Dembélé, Barcola
Shutting out the opposition
PSG have shown that they’re defensively resilient, which is what Enrique has been building on for a while. Last season, they conceded just 19 goals in 17 away dates. While that is an average of more than a goal per game, it shows that scoring freely against PSG isn’t easy.
Meanwhile, Toulouse failed to find the back of the net in both of last season’s league meetings with the visitors. PSG prevented them from scoring in three of the last four head-to-heads.
Considering that the champions have already registered two clean sheets this season, it’s likely they will keep the hosts at bay this weekend.
- Toulouse vs PSG Betting Tip 1: BTTS - No 1.93 on Betway
Tough to break down
Historically, this fixture has been a tight affair. The positive for the visitors is that they’ve not gone into halftime with a deficit against Toulouse in each of the last 22 meetings in Ligue 1. Nine of their last 14 head-to-heads were tied at the break, which equates to 64%.
This pattern is also influenced by Toulouse’s vulnerability at home, as they are winless in eight of their last 10 league matches. Last season, they only managed to lead at halftime in two of their 17 home games.
Eight of those matches ended in a draw after 45 minutes, which suggests the visitors may have a tough time breaking through the home backline in the first period. The last time these teams met at this stadium, PSG needed a second-half goal to secure the win.
- Toulouse vs PSG Betting Tip 2: First half 1x2 - Draw 2.70 on Betway
An unlikely source
With PSG's wealth of attacking talent, picking any forward to score seems like the obvious choice. However, there is an outside pick that could be the difference, just like he was last weekend.
Fabian Ruiz scored the winning goal at home against Angers, which proved to be crucial after a missed penalty by Ousmane Dembele earlier in the game. Ruiz isn’t known for his attacking returns, as he scored just eight goals in 61 appearances last season.
The Spanish midfielder scored last week, and in the last meeting between the clubs. It was his goal that separated the teams in the corresponding fixture, which is why it’s worth backing Ruiz to be the difference again.
- Toulouse vs PSG Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Fabian Ruiz 5.60 on Betway