Our expert shares tips for the reverse AFCON qualifier between Somalia and Ghana. Ghana are likely to repeat last week’s result, especially at home.
Best bets for Somalia vs Ghana
- Ghana Totals - Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.14 on Betway
- Totals & BTTS - Under 2.5 goals & No at odds of 2.60 on Betway
- 1x2 & Totals - Ghana & Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.95 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Somalia 0-2 Ghana
- Goalscorers prediction: Ghana: Jordan Ayew, Mohamed Kudus
Somalia’s Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign suffered another blow last Thursday, as Ghana beat them 2-0. It was the Ocean Stars’ third defeat on the bounce in this competition, which left them rooted to the bottom of the Group C standings. Yusuf Ali Nur’s side reported some disruption to their training before the match, which caused controversy.
Nonetheless, Somalia must gear up for another outing at the Essipong Stadium in Ghana. Due to their home stadiums not being approved by CAF, the Ocean Stars will once again play at the same venue as last Thursday. However, the travelling party will be regarded as the ‘home’ team for this outing, which removes any proper advantage for them.
The Black Stars won’t mind turning out in front of fans in their country once again, especially after delivering their first win of qualifying last week. Those three points mean that Ghana are still in with a real chance of making it into the top two of the group. That victory for the Ghanaians can’t be underestimated, especially as it ended a five-game winless streak.
Interim boss Kim Lars Bjorkegren must be pleased with what he saw last week, and he’ll be eager for more. With two more matches in the group remaining after Monday’s fixture, qualification for Ghana is a real possibility. Since the Black Stars are technically home, there shouldn’t be any excuses for slipping up.
Probable lineups for Somalia vs Ghana
Somalia expected lineup: Hussein, Mohamed, Gigli, Omar, Othman, Sharif, Bile, Abdullahi, Nour, Hassan, Njie
Ghana expected lineup: Asare, Seidu, Adjetey, Salisu, Mensah, Yirenkyi, Partey, Adu, Kudus, Fatawu, Ayew
Ghana’s attack is slightly blunt
Ghana put two goals past Somalia on Thursday. However, they missed the opportunity to add a third when Jordan Ayew failed to convert a penalty after just 14 minutes. The game therefore ended 2-0. As expected, the Black Stars dominated proceedings, but their xG (expected goals) of 2.01 suggests they got what they deserved.
Bjorkegren’s men created two big chances and converted both, but they failed to create more clear-cut opportunities. Ghana took a staggering 23 shots last week, but only eight were on target. That means only 35% of their attempts could’ve potentially troubled the Somalian goalkeeper.
Despite scoring twice in that match, Ghana have managed only five goals across their last five outings, averaging one per game. Additionally, Somalia haven’t conceded more than two goals in a game across their previous nine matches in a row. As a result, we are backing the Black Stars to keep their goal count under the 2.5 mark.
- Somalia vs Ghana Betting Tip 1: Ghana Totals - Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.14 on Betway
Somalia struggle to make an impact in attack
Ghana may not run up a big score against Somalia, but they should be capable of keeping things tight at the other end. Bjorkegren hopes his men can shut out the opposition completely to record a second consecutive clean sheet. The reality is that the Black Stars don’t have to work too hard to prevent Somalia from scoring.
The Ocean Stars have failed to hit the back of the net in five of their last six outings inside regulation time. They managed just one goal across those fixtures, averaging 0.16 per game. Somalia could only manage an xG of 0.11 in last week’s clash.
They took three shots in the entire 90 minutes, two of which were on target. Additionally, both teams scored in just one of the Ocean Stars’ last seven internationals. Ghana have seen the same outcome in five of their recent seven matches, which is why it’s likely only one team will score on Monday.
- Somalia vs Ghana Betting Tip 2: Totals & BTTS - Under 2.5 goals & No at odds of 2.60 on Betway
Odds stacked against the Ocean Stars
The Black Stars finally put an end to a horrible run of five matches without a win. With The Gambia suffering a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Cote d’Ivoire on Thursday, the door of qualification is open for Ghana. Bjorkegren’s troops will be banking on a repeat of that result in the reverse fixture.
However, they need to get the job done against Somalia. Given that they are effectively playing at home, they should do so easily. Even with three points, Ghana still have work to do, as they have an inferior head-to-head record against The Gambia in these qualifiers. A win here for the Black Stars would place them in a healthier position than they were after the first two matches.
With Ghana winning all three past head-to-heads against Somalia by an aggregate score of 9-0, Bjorkegren’s charges are expected to triumph. We could witness another outing just like last Thursday’s when the Black Stars were efficient enough to get over the line.
- Somalia vs Ghana Betting Tip 3: 1x2 & Totals - Ghana & Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.95 on Betway