Our betting expert expects a wide-open contest to serve up many goals, with Barcelona edging out the defending champions.
Best bets for PSG vs Barcelona
- Over 4.5 goals at odds of 2.15 on Betway
- Barcelona to win & Both teams to score at odds of 3.10 on Betway
- Lamine Yamal 1+ assists at odds of 2.88 on Betway
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - PSG 3-4 Barcelona
- Goalscorers prediction - PSG: Ousmane Dembele x2, Desire Doue - Barcelona: Anthony Gordon, Raphinha, Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo
Both sides passed potentially tricky tests on the road in their domestic leagues at the weekend. PSG won 3-1 at Strasbourg, with all of their goals coming in the final 15 minutes. The late comeback ensured Luis Enrique’s side moved to the top of Ligue 1.
The Parisians were also 4-2 winners away to Man City last week. Their bid for a third straight Champions League title has started well. However, this will be PSG’s biggest challenge of the campaign to date.
Barcelona boast a 100% record across all competitions. All 11 of their victories have come via margins of two or more goals. Their dominant form continued with a 5-2 triumph away to Real Betis in La Liga on Saturday.
Probable lineups for PSG vs Barcelona
PSG expected lineup: Safonov, Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Digne, Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Fabian, Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia
Barcelona expected lineup: J. Garcia, Cancelo, Cubarsi, Martin, Espart, Rodri, Pedri, Yamal, Olmo, Gordon, Raphinha
Heavyweight clash to turn into a classic
Hansi Flick and Luis Enrique each favour high-risk, offensive football. They can both count on devastating attacks, but there are vulnerabilities at the back on each side. Those could be even more evident here, with Nuno Mendes and Eric Garcia among the injured defenders who won’t feature.
Barcelona’s matches this season average 5.36 goals per 90 minutes. Eight of their past nine games in all competitions have finished with five or more goals in total.
The goals have also come thick and fast in recent PSG matches. The last three outings for the French giants have all finished with four or more goals. Meanwhile, their two Champions League fixtures so far this term have each produced at least six goals.
PSG took the game to Man City at the Etihad Stadium last week in an end-to-end contest that produced 4.46 xG. Another wide-open clash is likely. Over 4.5 goals appears to offer value with an implied probability of 47%.
- PSG vs Barcelona Bet 1: Over 4.5 goals at odds of 2.15 on Betway
Barca to see off the reigning champions
It’d be a huge surprise if this game finished with either team failing to score. Six of the past seven Barcelona matches have produced goals at each end. Meanwhile, both teams have scored in 82% of PSG fixtures this term.
On current form, it is the visitors who are slightly more convincing. Barca have had too much quality for their recent opponents and average 4.36 goals per game across all competitions. They should pose many problems for a PSG defence that allowed six big chances at Man City last week.
The hosts do lead the way with their total of 6.4 xG in the Champions League so far this season. However, they did kick off with a very favourable home fixture against Slovan Bratislava.
PSG have already failed to win on four occasions this term, and they tend to peak later in the campaign. Despite winning the Champions League twice since the change in format, they’ve never finished higher than 11th in the league phase. Backing Barca to triumph in a game that sees both teams score could be the smart approach.
- PSG vs Barcelona Bet 2: Barcelona to win & Both teams to score at odds of 3.10 on Betway
Yamal’s creativity to make the difference
While both sides can count on many elite attacking stars, Lamine Yamal could still steal the show. His game has gone to another level this season, with 19 goal contributions in 11 outings for his club.
Assists have counted for 53% of his total goal contributions. The 19-year-old has created four goals in his three appearances since returning from the international break. That includes two assists in Barca’s 4-1 Champions League win at Galatasaray last week.
Yamal also assisted twice against Feyenoord on Matchday 1. He averages 5.0 key passes per game in Europe and will likely be up against PSG’s back-up left-back Lucas Digne. Yamal could have a major influence on this match-up. He is well placed to register 1+ assists with an implied probability of 35%.
- PSG vs Barcelona Bet 3: Lamine Yamal 1+ assists at odds of 2.88 on Betway