Jesus has picked a star-studded squad to kick off Portugal’s 2026/27 Nations League campaign, while Wales are without a key central defender.
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Best bets for Portugal vs Wales
- Portugal -1 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 1.72 with Betway
- Portugal to win and both teams to score (no) at odds of 1.85 with Betway
- 2-0 Correct score at odds of 6.00 with Betway
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Portugal 2-0 Wales
- Goalscorers prediction: Portugal: Ronaldo, Neto
Portugal host Wales at the Estádio José Alvalade on Thursday. Kick-off is at 20:45 in Group A4 of the Nations League. It is Jorge Jesus' first competitive game in charge of the holders.
Jesus replaced Roberto Martínez after a 1-0 World Cup defeat by Spain in the last 16. Mikel Merino's 91st-minute winner ended that campaign in brutal fashion.
Jesus has named a 25-man squad built on the same core. Cristiano Ronaldo is included in the squad, aged 41. Samuel Soares, Nuno Tavares, João Palhinha and Fábio Silva are the fresh faces.
Wales are back in League A but arrive winless in four matches. They drew 1-1 with Ghana and lost 2-1 in Romania in June.
Craig Bellamy is without Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor and Ronan Kpakio through injury. Captain Ben Davies returns after a serious ankle problem. The only previous meeting was Portugal's 2-0 win in the Euro 2016 semi-final.
Probable lineups for Portugal vs Wales
Portugal expected lineup: Costa, Dalot, Dias, Inácio, Mendes, Vitinha, Neves, Silva, Fernandes, Leão, Ronaldo
Wales expected lineup: Darlow, Mepham, Davies, Roberts, Williams, Ampadu, James, Colwill, Johnson, Wilson, Moore
Portugal to win by two or more goals
Wales sit 38th in the world rankings, their lowest placing since August 2014. They have not beaten a top-20 side since Croatia in October 2023. That is a poor platform for this trip.
Bellamy's defence is the bigger worry here. Joe Rodon is out with a hamstring problem, and Dylan Lawlor is also missing. Wales conceded twice in Bucharest in June against far weaker opposition.
Portugal have scored nine goals in their last five outings. A new coach usually brings an early sharpness at home. The market implies a 58.1% chance of the hosts winning by a two-goal margin. That seems short of the real probability, given that the Portuguese will be desperate to impress Jesus.
- Portugal vs Wales Bet 1: Portugal -1 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 1.72 with Betway
Value on a clean sheet for the hosts
Portugal have conceded just twice in their last five matches. Rúben Dias and Gonçalo Inácio give Jesus a settled pairing at centre-back. Diogo Costa is among the better goalkeepers in this competition.
Wales are likely to adopt a more defensive approach rather than engage in an open contest in Lisbon. Their route to goal is on transitions via Brennan Johnson and Daniel James. That threat is real, but it needs a rare clean break.
The risk is clear enough. Wales have scored in each of their last four games. However, a 54.1% implied chance of a Portugal win to nil reads like a fair entry point.
- Portugal vs Wales Bet 2: Portugal to win and both teams to score (no) at odds of 1.85 with Betway
A comfortable home win amid a hectic schedule
The only previous meeting finished 2-0 to Portugal. Ronaldo and Nani scored in Lyon at Euro 2016. That scoreline fits both selections without requiring Portugal to win by a wide margin.
There is a good reason to expect a measured approach on Thursday. Portugal travel to Norway three days later in the same group. Jesus is unlikely to want his key players pushing for a fifth goal when the match could already be under control.
Wales should sit deep and aim to keep the game low-scoring. The market deems Portugal to have an 83% implied chance of winning. However, it implies only a 16.7% chance of the final score being 2-0.
With the Welsh unlikely to score and Portugal to potentially conserve energy, this looks like a realistic scoreline. It’s arguably our top value bet from our trio of Portugal vs Wales predictions.
- Portugal vs Wales Bet 3: 2-0 Correct score at odds of 6.00 with Betway