Our betting expert expects Jeff Strasser’s Luxembourg to lose to Italy, led by caretaker coach Silvio Baldini, at Stade de Luxembourg.
Best bets for Luxembourg vs Italy
- Italy to win, at odds of 1.80 on Betway
- Both teams to score - Yes, at odds of 1.95 on Betway
- Over 2.5 total goals, at odds of 2.00 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Luxembourg 1-2 Italy
- Goalscorers prediction: Luxembourg: Vincent Thill; Italy: Pio Esposito (x2)
With the 2026 World Cup approaching, neither Luxembourg nor Italy will feature at the finals, given their poor performance in the qualifiers. The Red Lions lost six games in Group A. Meanwhile, the Azzurri finished second behind Norway in Group I and then lost to Bosnia & Herzegovina in the play‑off final.
Luxembourg ended a 10-game winless streak with back-to-back wins over Malta. They secured their place in League C of the Nations League with a 5-0 aggregate victory over the island nation.
Italy have failed to qualify for the World Cup for a third consecutive time, one of their worst-ever spells. This led to Gennaro Gattuso’s resignation, which was followed by the appointment of Italy U21 coach Silvio Baldini on an interim basis. His side will travel to Luxembourg first, before facing Greece in Heraklion.
Italy are an improving team. However, they still have superior individual quality. Expect the Azzurri to edge past the hosts in a less‑than‑convincing victory.
Probable lineups for Luxembourg vs Italy
Luxembourg expected lineup: Moris, Carlson, Jans, Korac, Bohnert, Martins, Thill, Barreiro, Olesen, Sinani, Dardari
Italy expected lineup: Donnarumma, Ahanor, Bartesaghi, Comuzzo, Palestra, Lipani, Pisilli, Ndour, Cherubini, Koleosho, Esposito
Baldini to lead Azzuri to victory
Luxembourg have had a poor World Cup qualifying campaign. They lost all six qualifiers, scoring just one goal.
However, they bounced back in style. They recorded a 2-0 win over Malta in the Nations League promotion race and followed it up with a 3-0 victory in the return leg on home turf.
Though those wins are impressive, Italy are a different breed altogether despite their recent struggles. The Azzurri are still recovering from the disappointment of failing to qualify for the World Cup for a third consecutive time.
Italy beat Northern Ireland in the first play‑off round, then lost to Bosnia on penalties. This is a perfect chance for an improved Italy side to recover. Luxembourg simply lack the firepower to cause an upset.
- Luxembourg vs Italy betting Tip 1: Italy to win, at odds of 1.80 on Betway
Both sides poised to find the net
Luxembourg showed real determination in their two latest wins over Malta in March. They scored across both legs, with Vincent Thill and Daniel Sinani leading the attack line.
Their 5-0 aggregate win should give them confidence. Therefore, we expect a consolation goal against an Italy side in transition.
Silvio Baldini is expected to start Pio Esposito up front. The 20‑year‑old finished the season with 10 goals and six assists in 48 matches for Inter Milan. He also scored a crucial equaliser in the 3-3 draw with Bologna on the final Serie A matchday.
Both teams are vulnerable in defensive transitions. Luxembourg have a famously leaky backline, while fresh faces in Italy's defence can also be exposed. Expect both sides to score at the Stade de Luxembourg.
- Luxembourg vs Italy Betting Tip 2: Both teams to score - Yes, at odds of 1.95 on Betway
Over 2.5 the value play
Luxembourg are not known for scoring freely. However, they surprised Malta with clinical finishing in the first leg, then took it up a notch in the return leg, netting five goals across both matches.
Yet only two of their last six matches across all competitions have gone over 2.5 total goals. If they carry even a fraction of that recent form against Malta, this fixture should clear the mark.
Italy have the quality in the final third to push the total beyond 2.5. Two of their last five competitive matches have exceeded that line. Additionally, each of their past two games could have seen the same outcome but for poor finishing.
The Azzurri are expected to carve out more chances than the hosts. Meanwhile, Luxembourg may take advantage of Italy’s inexperienced backline.
- Luxembourg vs Italy Betting Tip 3: Over 2.5 total goals, at odds of 2.00 on Betway