We expect goals at the San Siro. Five of the last six meetings between Italy and France have seen at least three goals. BTTS has landed in all six.
Best bets for Italy vs France
- Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.95 with Betway
- Draw (1st half) at odds of 2.40 with Betway
- Michael Olise to score or assist at odds of 1.72 with Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Italy 2-2 France
- Goalscorers prediction: Italy: P. Esposito, Cambiaghi - France: Mbappe, Olise
Italy host France at the San Siro on Thursday with top spot in Group 1 of the 2026/27 Nations League’s League A at stake. Roberto Mancini’s side sit second in Group A1 on seven points.
Italy have scored eight and conceded five. Their matches average 3.25 goals apiece. They know that only a win is good enough this evening. As they are just one point above third-placed Belgium, a loss to Les Bleus could leave them at risk of falling into the relegation play-offs.
Mancini has named a sizeable 31-man squad for this international period, featuring five uncapped players. Giovanni Di Lorenzo (muscle) misses out after limping off against Juventus for Napoli.
France lead Group A1 on 10 points from four games. The reverse fixture at the Stade de France finished 1-1 last month. They would probably take a similar scoreline here to maintain top spot.
Les Bleus have conceded just two goals in four group games. That is comfortably the best record in the group. Boss Zinedine Zidane is without three of his senior centre-backs. William Saliba, Jules Kounde and Maxence Lacroix are all injured.
Dayot Upamecano has been included in the squad but is unavailable due to suspension. Kylian Mbappe will captain the side and lead the attack, with Ousmane Dembele ruled out by a thigh injury. Meanwhile, Pablo Pagis of Paris FC has received his first senior call-up.
Probable lineups for Italy vs France
Italy expected lineup: Donnarumma, Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori, Barella, Fagioli, Tonali, S. Esposito, P. Esposito, Cambiaghi
France expected lineup: Maignan, Gusto, Konate, Kalulu, Truffert, Tchouameni, Rabiot, Camavinga, Olise, Mbappe, Barcola
Goal action at both ends likely at the San Siro
The reverse fixture in Paris finished 1-1. Italy’s four group games have produced 13 goals. That average of 3.25 per match tops Group A1.
Zidane’s back line is also stretched thin, with three of their senior defenders missing and one banned. Mancini hopes the likes of Pio Esposito and Nicolo Barella can take full advantage.
Although the French have conceded just two goals in four group games, the historic head-to-head data is encouraging. France have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last seven meetings with Italy. Both teams have scored in their last six, including the reverse fixture in Paris.
France also average the second-highest shots on target per match (6.8) in the entire Nations League.
We can back both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at odds implying a 51.3% probability. However, we estimate the true probability to be closer to 55–60%.
- Italy vs France Bet 1: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.95 with Betway
Anticipate a cautious opening 45 with a top spot at stake
France have conceded just two goals in four group games. Italy have shipped only five themselves.
The reverse fixture in Paris finished 1-1. Neither side is likely to take too many risks early on. France know a draw is good enough to keep the Italians three points adrift, regardless of Belgium’s result against Türkiye.
Zidane’s defensive absences mean they could start out cautiously instead of taking unnecessary risks. Mancini has five uncapped players in his squad that lack big-game experience despite being eager to impress.
However, Italy’s games average 3.25 goals, with chances often created at both ends. The teams played out Italy’s only draw in the 2026/27 Nations League last month in Paris.
There’s value in backing a half-time draw here at a 41.67% implied probability, with Zidane happy to keep the San Siro faithful quiet. The likelihood should be closer to 45%, making it the value bet of our trio of Italy vs France predictions.
- Italy vs France Bet 2: Draw (1st half) at odds of 2.40 with Betway
Back Olise to carry Les Bleus’ creative intent
Michael Olise has six goals and three assists in nine Bundesliga games. That equates to 1.08 goal contributions per 90. His average rating this season is an impressive 8.44. He sits in the 99th percentile for goals and chances created.
Olise has been equally impressive for his country in the 2026/27 Nations League. He sits in the 100th percentile for goals scored and the 100th percentile for shots on target. Also, he is in the 84th percentile for expected assists. He’s racked up an impressive 25 line-breaking passes for Zidane’s side.
With Ousmane Dembele and Maghnes Akliouche both absent through injury, Olise becomes the clear creative outlet alongside Mbappe. We can back him to register a goal contribution at a 58.1% implied probability. He has averaged 1.5 goal contributions per game so far in the 2026/27 Nations League.
- Italy vs France Bet 3: Michael Olise to score or assist at odds of 1.72 with Betway