Freiburg have averaged two points per game so far this term. By contrast, Union average fewer than one point and one goal scored per game.
Best bets for Freiburg vs Union Berlin
- Freiburg -1 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.30 with Betway
- Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10 with Betway
- Vincenzo Grifo 1+ assist at odds of 3.60 with Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Freiburg 3-1 Union Berlin
- Goalscorers prediction: Freiburg: Suzuki, Holer, Scherhant
Union Berlin: Haberer
Freiburg entertain 16th-placed Union Berlin at the Europa-Park Stadion on Sunday. The home side sit proudly in third position.
Julian Schuster’s men have been incredibly efficient on home soil so far this term, winning three of their four games. They’ve also scored 12 goals, averaging three per game in front of their own fans.
Freiburg have the sixth-highest average team rating (7.02), which suggests their recent results are by no means undeserved.
Schuster has some selection issues to contend with for Sunday. Igor Matanovic played most of Thursday’s Europa League win at Trabzonspor. He may be rested to the bench in favour of Lucas Höler. Patrick Osterhage (muscle) and Florent Muslija (knee) are both sidelined.
Union Berlin are unbeaten in their last seven Bundesliga matches against Freiburg. However, they currently sit third-bottom with the worst away record in the division. One goal scored and 12 conceded in three road trips tells you all you need to know.
Yet, Union have drawn four of their eight matches and can still offer stubborn resistance on occasion. Felix Uduokhai is suspended for this one, while Robert Skov (muscle), Stanley Nsoki (calf), Andrik Markgraf (knee) and Andrej Ilic (appendix) are all unavailable.
Probable lineups for Freiburg vs Union Berlin
Freiburg expected lineup: Backhaus, Kubler, Ginter, Lienhart, Makengo, Eggestein, Engelhardt, Beste, Suzuki, Scherhant, Holer
Union Berlin expected lineup: Ronnow, Kohn, Friedrich, Bosch, Haberer, Khedira, Schafer, Imeri, Aebischer, Burcu, Skarke
Hosts to win by at least a two-goal margin
Union Berlin have taken just one point from their last three away games. They were hammered 7-0 at Bayern Munich and conceded another four without reply at Bayer Leverkusen. Freiburg currently sit third in the Bundesliga, so they should be viewed in a similar bracket to Leverkusen right now.
The visitors have also scored just one goal in their four away games. That’s the Bundesliga’s poorest attacking return from an away team. In addition, Freiburg have won three of their first four home matches.
The hosts have also overperformed their xG by 4.1 goals, so it’s clear they are in a confident mood in front of goal right now. We can back Julian Schuster’s in-form side to win by a two-goal margin or more at an implied probability of 43.48%.
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin Bet 1: Freiburg -1 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.30 with Betway
Goals to flow at either end
Freiburg have averaged more than a goal conceded per game so far this term. In addition, both teams have scored in eight of their last ten games. The Over 2.5 Goals line has been cleared in nine of their last ten matches.
Although five of Union Berlin’s last six games have failed to clear the Over 2.5 Goals line, it’s a bet we’re happy to consider this weekend. Four of their last seven meetings in Freiburg have ended with three or more goals scored. Both Teams to Score has also landed in four of those seven previous match-ups.
Although Union have scored just seven goals in eight matches, their xG is encouraging. They’ve underperformed by 6.9 goals to date. A return to their expected scoring levels could see them find the net at least once or twice this weekend.
We can back goals at both ends and three or more goals at a 47.62% implied probability. The likelihood should be closer to 50%-55%, making it one of the top value plays in our Freiburg vs Union Berlin predictions.
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin Bet 2: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10 with Betway
Grifo offers great value to be Freiburg’s creator-in-chief
Freiburg’s experienced midfielder Vincenzo Grifo has been in good recent form for the hosts. He’s assisted two goals in his last three appearances. He was Freiburg’s highest-rated player in their recent 3-2 win over Wolfsburg.
Grifo played an hour of Freiburg’s 1-0 win over Trabzonspor in the Europa League on Thursday. Grifo has created four big chances so far this term, with only Derry Scherhant (5) creating more.
The Italian leads the way for Freiburg with 12.6 line-breaking passes per 90. He’s also top of the charts for accurate long balls per 90 (3.4). In total, his xA per 90 stands at 1.28, which is way ahead of second-placed Jan-Niklas Beste (0.33).
This suggests Grifo is great value to contribute a goal this weekend at a modest implied probability of 27.78%.
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin Bet 3: Vincenzo Grifo 1+ assist at odds of 3.60 with Betway