Our betting expert shares his predictions for this match. While both teams are in transition, France’s individual quality could outshine the visitors.
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Best bets for France vs Italy
- BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.64 on Betway
- Three-way handicap - France to win with a -1 handicap at odds of 1.92 on Betway
- Anytime goalscorer - Michael Olise at odds of 2.65 on Betway
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: France 3-1 Italy
- Goalscorers prediction: France: Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Rayan Cherki - Italy: Pio Esposito
After another disappointing World Cup, France finished fourth in the tournament. Les Bleus lost 6-4 to England in the bronze medal match, marking the last time Didier Deschamps was in charge. Zinedine Zidane was subsequently appointed head coach of the French national team, with the Nations League his first competition in charge.
It’s worked out well for Zizou so far, as his side recorded two wins from two. France sit top of Group 1 in League A. They hope to add to their sole Nations League title in 2027. With 1-0 triumphs over Turkiye and Belgium, France’s true test in the group awaits this Friday.
Italy’s rebuild began with Roberto Mancini returning for his second stint as national team manager. He’s working with a much younger core of players, one that he hopes can challenge again and secure a place at the next World Cup. The Azzurri suffered an opening day defeat to Belgium, but they followed that up with a strong 4-1 victory over Turkiye.
They’ll host Turkiye on Monday to end this international window, but must first face France this Friday. With both sides still finding their feet under new management, it makes for an interesting contest.
Probable lineups for France vs Italy
France expected lineup: Maignan, Kounde, Upamecano, Lacroix, Truffert, Cherki, Rabiot, Camavinga, Olise, Barcola, Dembele
Italy expected lineup: Donnarumma, Kayode, Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori, Frattesi, Tonali, Fagioli, Kean, Cambiaghi, P. Esposito
Plenty of goals in this rivalry
Zidane will be proud of what his team have achieved in the group so far. Two consecutive clean sheets away from home is an impressive achievement. However, his backline might find it more difficult to keep Italy at bay.
France have conceded eight goals across their last six matches, with England scoring six of them in their 6-4 win. That shows the French defence can be vulnerable, particularly against strong opposition. Italy’s four goals against Turkiye made it seven in their last five games. That’s a healthy return, regardless of their blank against Belgium last week.
This fixture has also produced goals consistently in recent years. The last four meetings produced 16 goals, with four scored in each game. Both teams scored in each of those matches, while the same happened in eight of the last 10 meetings. With goals at both ends a recurring theme in this fixture, BTTS looks like a strong angle here.
- France vs Italy Betting Tip 1: BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.64 on Betway
France’s quality to shine through
It’s a good time to play France as Kylian Mbappe, Ibrahima Konate, and William Saliba are all unavailable through injury. Zidane is still working out the best combinations for his system, but nothing quite like what Mancini faces with Italy.
In a match like this, individual quality could prove decisive. When comparing the two squads, France clearly have greater depth and quality. They made nine changes to their starting lineup for the Turkiye and Belgium games but still won both.
The most recent meeting between the teams took place in 2024, when France beat Italy in Milan. Les Bleus have won four of the last five head-to-heads, while Italy secured an away win in this competition in their previous visit. Each of the last four head-to-heads finished with a scoreline of 3-1, three times in France’s favour, so it’s worth backing them again.
- France vs Italy Betting Tip 2: Three-way handicap - France to win with a -1 handicap at odds of 1.92 on Betway
Olise can cause Italy problems
With Mbappe out of action, goalscoring pressure will automatically fall on Ousmane Dembele, who’ll likely lead the line. However, there’s another man who’s been in excellent form.
Michael Olise grabbed the headlines with his 88th-minute winner against Belgium last time out. It was his 19th goal involvement for France. Olise has been unstoppable recently. His numbers are through the roof, and Mancini’s side will need to contain him if they want to stay in the game in Paris.
The forward has scored nine goals in his last nine appearances for both club and country. In that run, he also registered four assists. To narrow it down further, Olise scored four goals and secured two assists in his last three games for club and country.
He will be one of France’s biggest threats on Friday night. If Italy cannot contain him, his form could make the difference.
- France vs Italy Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Michael Olise at odds of 2.65 on Betway