After their stunning win over France on Thursday, a point would be enough to ensure Italy’s place in the Nations League knockouts.
Best bets for Belgium vs Italy
- Italy (1st goal) at odds of 2.20 with Betway
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.15 with Betway
- Full-time result - Draw at odds of 3.60 with Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Belgium 1-1 Italy
- Goalscorers prediction: Belgium: Lukaku - Italy: P. Esposito
Belgium host Italy in Brussels on Sunday for the final group game of the 2026/27 Nations League Group A1.
Belgium came from behind to win in Turkiye after Arda Guler had broken the deadlock. Mark van Bommel’s men must win this match to reach the knockouts and avoid the relegation play-offs.
Italy and France sit on ten points apiece, while Belgium are one point behind. Van Bommel will have been pleased by his side’s reaction to falling behind in Izmir. Kevin De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere scored within four minutes of each other to turn the game around.
Romeo Lavia returns from suspension for Sunday’s game, but keeper Thibaut Courtois remains absent. Romelu Lukaku will be assessed but should make it.
Roberto Mancini’s Italy will be brimming with confidence after their 3-1 win over France on Thursday night. Pio Esposito netted a brace, and Davide Frattesi added a third to send the San Siro into raptures.
The victory puts the Azzurri firmly in charge of their own destiny going into Sunday’s game in Brussels. They know a point will be good enough to keep Belgium at bay and secure at least second place.
Probable lineups for Belgium vs Italy
Belgium expected lineup: Lammens, Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper, Lavia, Tielemans, Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Doku, De Ketelaere
Italy expected lineup: Donnarumma, Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori, Frattesi, Tonali, Barella, S. Esposito, P. Esposito, Cambiaghi
Azzurri to make an early start
Italy have scored first in six of their last ten competitive matches. They have also scored first in seven of their last eight head-to-head meetings with Belgium. Despite this, the markets have an odds-against price of this happening on Sunday.
That’s surprising considering Italy’s front line. Pio Esposito now has four goals in this year’s Nations League campaign. Italy’s attack is the third-most prolific in League A. They have 9.9 xG, surpassed only by England (14.5) and Spain (11.6).
In addition, Italy have created 19 big chances so far in the group stage to Belgium’s 12. Although Belgium need to win here to stand a chance of qualification, Italy still have the edge in the final third.
- Belgium vs Italy Bet 1: Italy (1st goal) at odds of 2.20 with Betway
Visitors only need a point in Brussels
Seven of Italy’s last 11 games have ended with two or fewer goals. Although three of their last four games have featured at least four goals, the dynamics change considerably on Sunday.
Italy don’t need to win this game. Their heroics against France on Thursday mean a point will be enough to advance to the knockouts.
Even if the Azzurri get in front early, they will sit on their narrow lead and frustrate the hosts. Belgium only managed six shots on target to Turkiye’s seven on Thursday. This suggests they are far from lethal in the final third right now. We’re content with backing under 2.5 goals here at an odds-against price.
- Belgium vs Italy Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.15 with Betway
A point suits Mancini’s men fine
Italy visit Brussels needing only a draw. Second place and a quarter-final tie would be secured. A single point separates the top three in Group A1. Belgium beat Turkiye 2-1 from behind in Izmir on Thursday.
Italy held France to a 1-1 draw in Paris last month. There is no reason why the Azzurri can’t take a share of the spoils in Brussels too.
On the flip side, Belgium haven’t drawn any of their five group games. They must win here and have no use for a point. In our view, the draw comes into play as a bet for a couple of reasons. Firstly, van Bommel is without Courtois and Koni De Winter. Secondly, we still believe Italy will score first. If they do, Belgium’s task becomes more difficult.
Italy will sit back and be happy to play on transitions. This could bring the draw into the equation if the hosts eventually level, forcing the Azzurri to sit deeper and hold on to their precious point. Backing the draw at this price makes sense and it could be the value play from our Belgium vs Italy predictions.
- Belgium vs Italy Bet 3: Full-time result - Draw at odds of 3.60 with Betway