Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
- Draw or Atletico Madrid and Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 3.00 with Betway
- Atletico Madrid to Score First at odds of 2.60 with Betway
- Kylian Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer at odds of 2.10 with Betway
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Real Madrid face city rivals Atletico Madrid in yet another massive UEFA Champions League (UCL) contest. After meeting in two UCL finals in 2014 and 2016, followed by another epic semi-final in 2017, fans have had to wait eight years for another UCL meeting, this time in the last 16.
Real Madrid enter this tie in a difficult position, struggling with both form and player availability. They have won just one of their last four La Liga games. This has enabled Atletico to leapfrog Los Blancos into second place, one point behind league leaders, Barcelona.
Carlo Ancelotti won’t have the luxury of being able to select his first-choice starting XI either. England midfielder, Jude Bellingham, remains sidelined through suspension for the first leg. Meanwhile, the likes of Eder Militao, Dani Carvajal and Dani Ceballos are all sidelined with injury. Our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid predictions indicate it’s possible that Federico Valverde will be fit enough to return and possibly replace Lucas Vazquez at right-back.
It's a different story for Atletico Madrid, who are unbeaten in their last six La Liga games. This includes back-to-back wins over Valencia and Athletic Bilbao in their most recent fixtures.
Los Rojiblancos are in very good shape from a squad perspective, with virtually an entire roster available for selection. Diego Simeone chose to rest Argentine forward Julio Alvarez at the weekend, but he was called upon as a second-half substitute to net the decisive goal against Bilbao.
Probable Lineups for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid Expected Lineup: Courtois; Valverde, Mendy, Asencio, Rudiger, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Diaz, Rodrygo, Vinicius, Mbappe
Atletico Madrid Expected Lineup: Oblak; Molina, Gimenez, Le Normand, Galan, De Paul, Barrios, Llorente, Lino, Griezmann, Alvarez
Atletico to Move Into Pole Position
Atletico are unbeaten in their last four competitive meetings with Real. In fact, Real Madrid have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last ten contests against Atletico. This is sure to be even more of an issue with injuries to the likes of Dani Carvajal, Dani Ceballos and Eder Militao, which are affecting Carlo Ancelotti’s side.
Jude Bellingham’s continued suspension further limits Real’s creativity in the final third. That is why we are happy to back Atletico to avoid defeat in the opening leg. We also expect goals to be involved, as both teams have scored in each of their last nine meetings.
Simeone will view avoiding defeat as a positive outcome, as it would give Atleti a chance to secure a place in the UCL quarter-finals in the return leg at home.
- Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Bet 1: Draw or Atletico Madrid and Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 3.00 with Betway
Visitors Known for Scoring First Against Real
Atletico have opened the scoring in six of the last eight competitive meetings between them and Real. Given that Atletico have scored first in 58% of their domestic games this season, it’s somewhat surprising to see them priced at 2.60 to score first on Tuesday night.
This gives Atleti a probability of just 38.46% to score first at the Bernabeu. However, given Real’s injury and suspension, it’s a little bit surprising to find such good odds on the visitors to open the scoring.
Atletico have scored in each of their last ten competitive matches, which shows the strong attacking form of Diego Simeone’s side. Julio Alvarez, in particular, has been in great form in the Champions League, scoring six goals in eight appearances in the competition this season.
- Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Bet 2: Atletico Madrid to Score First at odds of 2.60 with Betway
Mbappe to be Real's Key Threat
It goes without saying that French forward Kylian Mbappe is Real Madrid’s primary goal threat. Los Blancos have relied heavily on the 26-year-old in the Champions League, with the former PSG ace scoring seven goals in ten UCL appearances so far this season.
Mbappe has also averaged one goal scored in 71% of Real’s La Liga games this term. This makes his odds-against price to score anytime against Atletico look very appealing.
Atletico’s central defenders, Robin Le Normand and Jose Maria Gimenez, are not known for their rapid acceleration or pace over short or long distances. If Mbappe manages to get any space in behind the Atleti defence, he’ll be sure to capitalise.
- Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Bet 3: Kylian Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer at odds of 2.10 with Betway