The Nicola effect has already produced a first triumph for Venezia in Serie A. With 31 games left to play, another salvation could be on the way.
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The man behind Serie A’s great escapes
As a newly promoted side, Venezia were expected to struggle to adapt, as they did in their previous two top-flight campaigns. Giovanni Stroppa was the man responsible for bringing the club straight back to the top flight after winning Serie B last term. However, he was unable to lead the Venice outfit to a single win in his six Serie A games in charge.
As a result, the club brought in Davide Nicola, who is no stranger to fighting off relegation. Over the last eight years, he has helped a team avoid relegation six times, which is an incredible record. For this reason, he could help turn this campaign around.
Nicola’s first escape act came at Crotone in the 2016/17 season. With nine games left, they were five points from safety. The manager promised to cycle 1,300 kilometres from Crotone to his home in Turin if they survived the drop. He led the team to six wins from their final nine matches, including a final-day 3-1 win over Lazio, to finish 17th. Also, he followed through on his cycling pledge.
That wasn’t a fluke by any stretch, as Nicola repeated the impossible three seasons later at Salernitana. The team were bottom of the division when he joined. He won 18 points from 15 matches and secured their Serie A status thanks to Venezia’s final-day goalless draw with Genoa. To celebrate that miracle, the former defender walked 280 kilometres from Salerno to Rome.
Nicola has pulled off miracles with Genoa in 2019/20, Torino in 2020/21, Empoli in 2023/24, and Cagliari in 2024/25. With Empoli, it was another final-day escape, as they were technically relegated at 1-1 against Roma going into stoppage time. However, a 93rd-minute winner saved them, giving Nicola the title of Serie A’s Houdini.
Nicola’s first signs of progress bring fresh hope
Before the lengthy international break, Venezia were in serious trouble after losing all five Serie A fixtures. Although the Lagunari lost 2-0 to Lazio in the first game back under Stroppa, there were signs of improvement. They had an xG (expected goals) of 1.92 compared to Lazio’s 1.64, with six shots on target versus two.
Still, the board decided it was time for fresh energy, and Nicola walked through the door. His first task was handling the visit of Massimiliano Allegri’s Napoli, where the home side were the clear underdogs. After a cagey first half, the second period lit up, with Akor Adams opening the scoring for the hosts. Several saves from Venezia’s goalkeeper, Filip Stankovic, kept Napoli at bay.
The Serbian stopped a Kevin De Bruyne penalty and made nine saves, preventing 2.06 goals. After joining Venezia from Inter Milan on a loan deal with an obligation to buy, Stankovic showed his worth last weekend. If he can continue delivering those man-of-the-match performances, things could tighten up at the back.
Another player who could be crucial for Nicola is Juan Jesus. He was let go by Napoli last season, joining the Venetian side as a free agent. Jesus was a clear leader at the weekend and ranked as the best defender on the pitch. With renewed vigour, Venezia can move away from being the division's second-most leaky defence as things stand.
The value behind Venezia
Based on their first six Serie A fixtures, it’s no surprise Venezia are likely to be relegated. However, Nicola has already delivered their first win of the season, and the Arancioneroverdi hope to build on that momentum. According to Opta’s xPTS (expected points) table, Venezia should be in 17th place with 6.7 points as opposed to their current three.
That shows their performances aren’t all poor, and they can turn things around. Parma have struggled recently, and they parted ways with head coach Carlos Cuesta, bringing in Alberto Gilardino. So far, that change hasn’t worked out, as Parma lost both games 3-0 under Gilardino’s guidance.
Another team to be involved in the relegation fight are Udinese. They sit 16th in the standings but are level on points with Parma (19th), Fiorentina (18th), and Genoa (17th). According to Opta’s expected points table, Parma should be bottom of the division. Consequently, backing Venezia for the drop may not deliver the intended returns.
Nicola’s men have tough dates with Inter Milan, Como, and Juventus before December. Yet, they’ve already shown they can trouble the bigger sides. With Venezia already recording their first clean sheet of the Serie A season, they could build on that by becoming more structured defensively. Their clean sheet arrived despite Napoli recording an xG of 2.36 in the game, which shows Venezia’s resilience.
It’s worth backing the goal count to fall below the 2.5 line in their upcoming clash with fellow relegation candidates Genoa. Additionally, a Venezia handicap could work, as they are now more inclined to avoid defeat this weekend. Nicola’s men have an xG (expected goals) of 10.88 this season, compared to Genoa’s 6.39.
As a result, Venezia appear to be the team to back not only for this coming weekend, but also to climb out of the relegation zone.