With only one home win in eight UEL playoff 1st legs and eight Conference League playoff 1st legs, what’s the betting strategy for this week’s ties?
| UEL & UCL Match Odds Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Stuttgart, Nottingham Forest and Genk to Win | 4.61 |
| Bologna, Celta Vigo, Crvena Zvezda, Genk, Forest, Stuttgart and Plzen at +1 European Handicap | 4.08 |
| Fiorentina and Lech Poznan -1 European Handicap | 3.61 |
| Crystal Palace to Win and AZ -1 European Handicap | 2.03 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Will last year’s trend of home dominance continue in the Europa League playoff 2nd legs?
The advantage in this week’s Europa League playoff second legs appears to belong to the teams playing at home. During the eight UEL first-leg fixtures, only Ludogorets managed a home victory, taking a narrow 2-1 lead into their match in Hungary against Ferencváros.
Among the remaining match-ups, there was a single draw between Panathinaikos and Viktoria Plzen, while the other six games resulted in away wins. The most significant result was VfB Stuttgart’s dominant 4-1 victory at Martin O’Neil’s Celtic.
At this stage last season, 50% of 1st leg matches resulted in home wins. However, six of the eight clubs that played at home in the 2nd leg still managed to qualify for the round of 16. Home advantage was a major factor last season, and current market expectations suggest history may repeat itself.
Seven of the eight home teams for Thursday’s 2nd leg ties are currently heavy favourites to win on the night. The only exception is the match between Crvena Zvezda and Lille, where the French side are a narrow away favourite as they attempt to overturn a 1-0 deficit.
Three of the seven home favourites are available to back at an odds-against price. Crvena Zvezda, Genk, and Viktoria Plzen all avoided defeat in their opening legs. Plzen are level at 2-2 with Panathinaikos, while Crvena Zvezda and Genk must protect one and two-goal leads, respectively.
The likes of Stuttgart, Forest, and Genk will be particularly interesting to watch. Their opponents will need to overturn three and two-goal deficits, which could leave gaps for these favourites to exploit on the transition. Therefore, putting this trio into a bet builder might be wise.
Excluding Ferencváros, seven of the eight home sides are in a strong position and do not need to play aggressively from the start. Consequently, using an Asian Handicap or European Handicap to cover these teams at +1 or +0.5 may be a smart choice to ensure a profit if away wins are avoided.
The intense atmosphere of European home matches often makes it a significant challenge for any visiting team attempting to overcome a first-leg deficit.
Home favourites look strong in the Conference League playoff 2nd legs too
The results of the Conference League playoff 1st legs were very similar to those in the Europa League. Away teams performed well, and only the Armenian side, Noah, achieved a home 1st-leg victory. Their surprising win over Dutch side AZ Alkmaar was the most notable result of the evening. This outcome highlighted the unpredictable nature of Europe’s third-tier club competition.
With the exception of the Swiss side, Lausanne-Sport, all seeded teams playing 2nd legs at home on Thursday are strong favourites to progress. Fiorentina and Lech Poznań currently hold three and two-goal leads over Jagiellonia Bialystok and KuPS, respectively.
Both Jagiellonia and KuPS must take risks to recover in their ties. La Viola and Poznan possess the quality to capitalize on the counter-attack. It could be worth backing these sides in an Asian Handicap double to win by two or more goals. It’ll offer more value than backing them in the Match Odds market.
If they only win by one-goal margins, the stake will be refunded. It’s a more secure approach than backing both sides to win by any scoreline.
Last season, only one team won their home 1st leg, yet 50% of the teams that played the 2nd leg away still qualified. The presence of clubs from nations such as Armenia, Slovenia, Finland, Bosnia, Cyprus, North Macedonia, and Kosovo suggests the performance gap between teams is narrower than in the Europa League.
Premier League side Crystal Palace were held to a 1-1 draw at Zrinjski Mostar. The Eagles will hope to secure qualification at Selhurst Park. However, the situation is not ideal for Palace, as uncertainty remains regarding the future of manager Oliver Glasner.
Nevertheless, with Palace only needing to win by a one-goal margin, they are still heavy favourites to progress.
To increase potential value, a victory for Palace could be paired with AZ Alkmaar overturning their deficit against Noah. AZ have averaged 2.67 points and 2.50 goals per home match in the UECL this season, suggesting they are capable of winning by at least a two-goal margin.