The four games at Villa Park, Anfield, Selhurst Park and Portman Road look closely matched, making the draw an appealing option in the 1x2 market.
| Premier League markets | Odds |
| Aston Villa vs Brentford - Draw | 3.50 |
| Ipswich vs Fulham - Draw | 3.50 |
| Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest - Draw | 3.30 |
| Liverpool vs Manchester City - Draw | 3.60 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Aston Villa vs Brentford: Draw @ 3.50
The meeting of Aston Villa and Brentford is one fixture where there is virtually nothing between the teams in the betting markets. The Bees are marginal favourites with an implied win probability of 39%. However, Villa aren’t far behind on 38%.
Brentford have made the better start to the campaign overall. They will take confidence from an excellent 3-0 win over neighbours Chelsea last time out. Keith Andrews’ side are yet to lose in seven competitive outings, which suggests they should get a result in the Midlands.
By contrast, Aston Villa are tougher to read, with this a highly transitional period at the Birmingham club. Key figures departed in the summer, but money was reinvested in young talents such as Zion Suzuki and Johan Manzambi. Those two players have already impressed and Villa claimed their first league win at Tottenham in their last match.
The Villans have won three of their past four competitive fixtures, having failed to triumph in any of the opening five. They still rank bottom of the Premier League with 4.7 xG (expected goals), but they are improving. That suggests Villa, who remain winless at home this term, can get a result.
Ipswich vs Fulham: Draw @ 3.50
There is a slightly clearer favourite in Saturday afternoon’s clash in East Anglia, but it’s still tight. Fulham are given a 40% chance of leaving Portman Road with maximum points, while Ipswich’s implied win probability is 36%.
It’s hard to see any value in the visitors, given they are still seeking their first Premier League win under Alvaro Arbeloa. Defensive vulnerabilities suggest this could be a difficult campaign for the Cottagers. Only Crystal Palace have conceded more xGA (expected goals against) than Fulham’s tally of 9.12 in the league this term.
However, Ipswich’s figures are remarkably similar. Gary O'Neil’s team have conceded 8.98 xGA and 11 goals in total, which suggests the visiting forward line should get opportunities.
Overall, these are two teams that bettors can’t trust defensively. Fulham have more quality on paper, but their winless start suggests the draw is the best option in the 1x2 market.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: Draw @ 3.30
Oliver Glasner returns to Selhurst Park on Sunday for this Premier League grudge match between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest. The home fans were left angered when Forest benefited from Palace’s demotion to the Conference League last season. While they went on to win that competition under Glasner, there is certainly no love lost between the clubs.
As is often the case in such circumstances, the action on the pitch may not live up to the pre-game hype. The bookmakers can’t settle on a favourite and the recent history of the fixture strongly points towards a draw.
All of the previous three meetings have ended 1-1. Six of the last seven encounters have also ended in draws, including all of the past five in South London. There have been two or fewer goals in each of the previous nine competitive fixtures between Palace and Forest.
The home side’s league-high tally of 9.46 xGA is one area of concern. Pierre Sage does need to find some solutions at the back. However, his players should know what to expect from a team coached by Glasner.
Forest are keeping it tight defensively, with only 4.80 xGA, the second-best figure in the Premier League behind Arsenal. That and the head-to-head trends suggest we might expect a 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline this weekend. However, the Draw remains the highest-priced option in the 1x2 market, which is also the case in the other three games.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: Draw @ 3.60
Following Manchester City’s guilty verdict on 114 of their 115 charges, all eyes will be on their trip to Anfield. A hostile welcome is guaranteed on Merseyside and it’ll be a test of character for Enzo Maresca’s side.
The bookmakers are again finding it impossible to call this game. Both teams can be backed with an implied probability of around 39% to clinch all the points.
Objectively, City are a more convincing outfit right now, as their 100% start to the Premier League suggests. No other side has won all of their opening five fixtures. However, they did allow 3.57 xG in their 5-3 win over Sunderland last time out, which will encourage Liverpool.
The Reds are yet to hit top gear under Andoni Iraola, but they remain unbeaten in seven outings under the ex-Bournemouth boss. Three of their opening five league matches have finished all square. With that in mind, backing the draw with an implied probability of 28% looks like the smart move here.