Roberto Martinez’s reign ended after a 1-0 defeat against Spain. Jesus must rebuild the Selecao - their Nations League group is a good place to start.
| Portugal National Team Betting Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Portugal (League A - Group 4 Winner) | 1.83 |
| Portugal (To Reach Nations League Final) | 4.00 |
| Portugal (26-27 Nations League Winner) | 9.00 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Jorge Jesus: curing a World Cup hangover
Jorge Jesus has become the new Portugal boss, replacing Roberto Martinez after a disappointing 2026 World Cup. They arrived in North America as reigning Nations League champions. However, the Selecao stumbled to a 1-1 draw with DR Congo, dominated Uzbekistan 5-0, before a goalless draw with Colombia.
They could only finish second to the Colombians in the group stage. Their contentious late winner over Croatia in the Round of 32 continued to mask the deeper issues.
The Round of 16 unsurprisingly exposed them against their bitter rivals. They managed just 0.60 xG to Spain’s 1.77 xG in a cagey contest. Mikel Merino’s 91st-minute winner proved Portugal’s undoing.
A squad routinely priced among the top six in the outright winner market failed to beat a single elite nation the entire tournament. That gap between their talent and output is precisely what Jesus has been hired to address.
What does the future hold for Jesus and Ronaldo?
The biggest concern for the Selecao, as ever, is the future of Cristiano Ronaldo. The 41-year-old scored three World Cup goals before announcing this would be his last World Cup finals. Nevertheless, he did not rule out further international appearances in the short-to-medium term under Jorge Jesus.
Jesus could be the coach to get the best out of the twilight of Ronaldo’s career. He managed Ronaldo at Al Nassr last season, guiding the club to its first Saudi Pro League title since 2019. Jesus regularly rotated Ronaldo to keep him fresh, starting 31 of the team’s 50 matches. Yet he scored 28 goals in their title-winning campaign.
At his announcement as Martinez’s successor, Jesus was adamant that Ronaldo would “never be a problem for the national team”. In fact, he reiterated that he would continue to select him for the upcoming Nations League campaign, if fit.
Jesus’ credentials and his Nations League assignment
Jesus has certainly earned his crack at managing the Portuguese national team. In a managerial career starting way back in 1990, Jesus has since managed 11 Portuguese domestic clubs. He guided Benfica to 10 trophies, including 3 league titles, during a hugely successful six-year reign between 2009 and 2015.
He has also enjoyed success overseas, including a Saudi Pro League title with Al-Nassr in 2025-26. That came after a domestic Saudi treble with Al Hilal in 2023-24.
During his time with Flamengo in Brazil, he also won the Copa Libertadores and the Brasileirao double in 2019.
Jesus’ first mission in charge of his country will be to prepare the squad for another Nations League tilt. Portugal go into the 2026-27 Nations League as defending champions. They’ve been drawn in Group 4 of League A, alongside Denmark, Norway, and Wales.
The top two nations will qualify for the last eight in March 2027. Norway reached the quarter-finals of the World Cup after knocking out Brazil and will be Portugal’s main threat. Nevertheless, given their Pot 1 status, the Selecao should have enough quality to top the group.
Portugal have won 75% of their meetings with Wales. They also have a 66% win rate over Denmark. Moreover, the Norwegians are a side that the Selecao have historically dominated, with Norway winning only one of their 11 meetings.
Backing the defending champions to top Group 4 of League A under new management, at a probability of just 54.65%, seems like a solid value bet.
Given Jesus’ track record of making an immediate impression on teams, we could look even further at the tournament. We can back the defending champions to reach successive Nations League finals at a probability of just 25%. That percentage shrinks to just over 11% for them to go all the way again.