Cuesta kept Parma comfortably in Serie A last season despite their third-worst attack. After key exits, survival looks much harder.
| Parma Serie A betting markets | Odds |
| Parma to be relegated | 2.37 |
| Inter Milan to win to nil vs Parma | 1.85 |
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Cuesta’s exit raises questions
On 27 September, Parma confirmed they were parting ways with Carlos Cuesta. Mikel Arteta’s former Arsenal assistant had been at the helm since June 2025. His reputation soared at the end of last season after steering Parma to a 13th-place finish.
The decision to part ways came after a narrow 2-1 win over Genoa, and his departure wasn’t taken lightly by the club’s hierarchy.
Nevertheless, Cuesta remained loyal to I Gialloblu after an encouraging opening season in charge. He rejected advances from several clubs in the summer, opting to stay with Parma in Serie A.
The club was adamant that the “advancement of the sporting project” wasn’t proceeding as quickly as hoped. Cuesta could point to the club’s transfer strategy as a key factor behind the club’s decline in the last 6 months.
Cuesta saw Zion Suzuki, Alessandro Circati and Mateo Pellegrino all leave Parma at the start of the season. The club brought in even younger replacements, taking the team’s average age down to 24 years old. That’s the third-youngest average age in Serie A.
Parma overachieved under Cuesta last season
Parma have been outperforming expectations for some time now. Under Cuesta last season, they finished in 13th place, just five points shy of a top-half position.
Parma scored just 28 goals in 38 matches, highlighting their attacking struggles. Their -18 goal difference was also among the worst in Serie A, with only Torino and the seven teams below them finishing with a lower figure.
Cuesta kept a tight ship. Parma ranked 9th in Serie A last season for goals conceded per 90 (1.2). This was vital considering their poor attacking output.
Tackling and discipline data suggest they’ve been passive for too long. Parma completed just 13.9 tackles per 90 last term. That was the 5th-lowest number of tackles per match in Serie A. They made just 10.9 tackles per 90. Their defensive record suggests this was an intentional tactic of a well-coached defence.
The data looks grim for Parma’s 2026/27 Serie A survival prospects
Although Cuesta got the most out of an overperforming squad last term, Parma’s fortunes have since taken a turn for the worse. They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in their first five games of 2026/27, which is a worrying downturn in their defensive structure.
Last term, they kept 13 clean sheets to cover for their lack of firepower. This year, their approach of staying compact and grinding out narrow wins is no longer working.
Their attack has been blunt for too long.It’s no surprise Parma have scored just four goals in five games after creating only eight big chances. Their xG (expected goals) stands at just 3.4 across those five matches. This suggests they’ve overperformed in front of goal, making the picture even bleaker. Last term, their xG was just 32 in 38 matches, the second-worst in Serie A. They’ve been below -par in the final third for too long.
Parma have completed an average of just 308 accurate passes per 90, the fourth-lowest figure in Serie A. They also rank fourth-lowest for touches in the opposition box, with 92. With so little control or attacking pressure, it’s no surprise they’ve struggled to trouble opponents this season.
It’s not quite as grim defensively speaking.Parma rank 13th in Serie A for xGA (expected goals against), posting 7.9 across their opening five fixtures. They’ve completed the fifth-highest number of interceptions per 90 (9.8), which suggests they are often forced to chase games. However, they rank bottom of the division for tackles completed per 90 (11.8), which is more concerning. Taken together, these figures help explain why Parma’s owners have turned to a new manager in search of a change in fortunes.
The club looks set to appoint former Genoa and Pisa boss Alberto Gilardino before the domestic campaign resumes. Gilardino managed a 40.51% win rate with Genoa, but his spell with Pisa was somewhat disastrous. The 44-year-old won just one of his 25 games in charge.
The road ahead looks difficult
It doesn’t get any easier for managerless Parma. Four of their next seven Serie A games are against teams with aspirations of finishing inside the top four.
They begin the next stretch of Serie A fixtures with a daunting trip to defending champions Inter. Cristian Chivu’s men are joint top of Serie A again, with 13 points from their opening five matches. This could be Gilardino’s first game in charge if the formalities of his contract are completed in time.
They then host Torino and Udinese, with away trips to Lazio and Atalanta in between. All four of these sides currently sit above I Gialloblu in the Serie A table.
The one ray of hope is that Hans Nicolussi Caviglia could soon return to action. The talented defensive midfielder would be an important player to have at Gilardino’s disposal.
In short, relegation is far from certain for Parma, but the underlying numbers are heading in the wrong direction. Gilardino could yet steady the ship and buy them enough time to steer clear of the drop zone.
Nevertheless, four goals in five games, zero clean sheets and a daunting upcoming fixture schedule make Parma a relegation candidate at a 42.19% implied probability. Gilardino’s poor spell with Pisa raises further doubts about his ability to improve a weakened Parma squad.