Freiburg’s flying start: Why goals are expected in Elversberg & Leipzig games

Julian Schuster’s Freiburg have suffered just two league defeats this season and head into the international break in impressive form.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

• Find out our suggested bookmakers for odds and promotions: Hollywoodbets and Easybet!
• Want to know more about South Africa's best betting sites?
• Find out about other exciting betting sites with welcome bonuses in South Africa.

Freiburg eye another European push

After ending last campaign in seventh place, Freiburg have made a wonderful start to this Bundesliga season. The Breisgau-Brasilianer are third in the division after nine games, just two points adrift of the top two - Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.

With November already underway, their position underlines their credentials for Champions League qualification. However, they’ve got a couple of tough tests after the international break.

Julian Schuster is now in his third season as head coach, and he has guided Freiburg to European competition in his two previous terms. That continuity can’t be underestimated, especially for a team eager to get into the top four. Freiburg made it to the Europa League final last season but were comfortably beaten 3-0 by Aston Villa. The underlying message here is that Freiburg can juggle continental football and the Bundesliga comfortably and not lose ground in either.

Freiburg prove their top-four credentials

Freiburg’s only two Bundesliga defeats this season have come against Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen, both of whom were considered stronger opponents and pre-match favourites.

Those results are hardly cause for concern, especially when the data suggests they belong where they are. Bayern are heavy favourites to win the league, while Leverkusen are top-four challengers.

Freiburg are still third in Opta’s expected points table. This shows they’ve been producing results according to the standards of their performances. Schuster’s men have an xGA (expected goals against) of 10.03, second only to Bayern Munich’s 7.85. Having conceded 10 goals, Freiburg’s defensive record is broadly in line with their underlying numbers.

Going forward, only Bayern (29) and Leipzig (27) have scored more than Freiburg’s 20 goals this season. However, with an xG (expected goals) of 16.37, they’ve been overperforming by 3.63. This points to impressive finishing, although a degree of fortune may also have played a part.

Their shot conversion rate of 13.99% is third in the division, behind their next two opponents, Elversberg and RB Leipzig. Bayern and Dortmund both have inferior shot conversion rates to Freiburg, which shows just how clinical Schuster’s side have been in front of goal. They are good at both ends of the pitch, and we expect the goals to trend upwards when Freiburg return to action after the international break.

Goals likely to flow after the break

Freiburg’s first assignment after the break is a trip to Elversberg, who’ve scored the fourth-most goals at home (12) in the Bundesliga this season. That’s an average of three goals per game.

Elversberg’s home matches have produced an average of five goals per game. Furthermore, at least four goals have been scored in 75% of their home league fixtures.

Despite scoring 17 league goals this term, it’s clear Elversberg’s defence is weak. They’ve conceded 18 goals in total and have an xGA of 18.75, the fifth-highest in the Bundesliga. This is ideal for the goals market, especially since Freiburg have been scoring regularly, supporting the over 3.5 goals pick for this fixture.

Freiburg will then host RB Leipzig, which is another option for the goals selection. Schuster masterminded a 4-1 hammering of this very opponent in the corresponding fixture last term. Leipzig’s attack delivered 27 goals in nine games, second only to Bayern in the goalscoring charts.

With their average of three goals per league match, we expect them to contribute to the scoreline here. No other team in the Bundesliga has a better shot conversion rate than their 17.42%, which points to a front line that hardly wastes chances. With Freiburg also among the Bundesliga’s top scorers, both sides have the attacking quality to clear the line on their own.