Both sides boast real quality in attack, but the Bavarians aim to have more stability in defence, which could prove decisive in the Champions League.
| Bayern Munich markets | Odds |
| To win the Champions League | 7.00 |
Odds courtesy of 10bet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Barcelona are clear Champions League favourites
Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Real Madrid and PSG started the season as the leading contenders to win the Champions League. However, just one matchday into the 2026/27 league phase, a clear favourite has already emerged.
Barca have pulled clear of the pack with some dominant domestic displays, while they beat Feyenoord 5-1 in their Champions League opener. Their odds have shortened, with Hansi Flick’s team now carrying an implied 20% chance of winning the competition.
However, the business end of the campaign remains more than six months away. Doubts still linger over whether Barcelona’s attacking approach will work against the best teams in the latter stages of the competition.
In the 2024/25 season, they reached the semi-finals but suffered a narrow 7-6 defeat to Inter Milan in a thrilling two-legged tie. The Catalans fell at the last-eight stage last time around, going down 3-2 on aggregate against Atletico Madrid.
Even if Barca continue to outclass weaker opponents, doubts about their defence against Europe's best teams will remain. Those vulnerabilities suggest there could be a better option at longer odds in the Champions League winner market.
Bayern Munich look best placed among the chasing pack. Michael Olise and Harry Kane do an immense job of leading the attack, while there are signs that their defence is improving. That leaves Vincent Kompany in a strong position to win his first Champions League title as a coach.
Two ruthless attacking forces
Barcelona and Bayern Munich were both devastating in attack last season, and little has changed this term. Barcelona have been even more productive in the final third, though.
Flick’s team have won all eight of their competitive fixtures, scoring at least two goals in every match. They’ve already netted five times on four separate occasions. That’s in addition to a 7-2 victory over Racing Santander in La Liga last month.
In the league, Barca are averaging 4.07 xG (expected goals) per 90 minutes. However, they have benefitted from a favourable schedule. The reigning Spanish champions are yet to face anyone who finished in the top seven of La Liga 2025/26.
Unlike Barca, Bayern Munich have already slipped up in the Bundesliga. They were held to a surprise 0-0 draw by newly promoted Schalke in early September. That was despite Kompany’s side having 83% of the possession and creating six big chances.
That was a rare occasion when Bayern were not ruthless in the final third, but they have since rediscovered their attacking form. The Bavarians beat Bodo/Glimt 5-0 in their opening Champions League game. They also put seven unanswered goals past Union Berlin last time out in the Bundesliga.
Bayern have recorded 12.53 xG across the opening four Bundesliga matchdays, comfortably the most in the division. They are also the top scorers with 14 goals. They doubled their tally against Union just before the international break.
Is now the moment to back Bayern to go all the way?
Routinely securing big winning margins in domestic football isn’t always an indicator of eventual Champions League success. Barcelona and Bayern Munich scored 217 league goals between them last season. However, it was PSG who successfully defended their European crown.
Winning a third straight Champions League could be beyond Luis Enrique’s side in 2027. Maintaining that intensity and consistency over such a long period is no easy feat at the highest level. PSG have won just two of their five Ligue 1 games so far, which could signal a decline.
Among the other candidates, there are significant off-field distractions at Manchester City. That will make Enzo Maresca’s task of delivering Champions League glory in his first season even tougher.
Arsenal again seem the most likely Premier League challengers for Europe’s biggest prize. However, Arteta and the Gunners remain the Champions League’s nearly-men. They came very close last term, but lack the raw firepower of Bayern Munich or Barcelona.
With Real Madrid unconvincing so far under Jose Mourinho, Barca and Bayern stand out as the best picks. Taking the latest market prices into account, Kompany’s side offer greater value with an implied probability of around 14%.
Barca have made some changes in 2026 to protect their high defensive line. However, they have gone four games without a clean sheet, conceding at least once against each of Feyenoord, Levante, Racing and Sevilla. That suggests Flick’s backline is still going to be vulnerable in the latter stages of the Champions League.
There were similar concerns about Bayern’s high-risk approach, but they’ve only allowed 2.3 xG across their opening four Bundesliga fixtures. That’s the best record in the division. They restricted Bodo/Glimt to only 0.30 xG in their European opener. Those are positive signs for Kompany’s team, who may now be ready to go all the way in the Champions League.