Liverpool overcame their crisis fear with a win against Inter in the UCL. They have lost only once at home to Brighton since they’ve been in the EPL.
Best bets for Liverpool vs Brighton
- Liverpool – Liverpool (Half Time – Full Time) at odds of 2.50 with Betway
- Over 1.5 Second Half goals at odds of 1.72 with Betway
- Danny Welbeck to Score at odds of 3.25 with Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Liverpool 2-1 Brighton
- Goalscorers prediction – Liverpool: Ekitike, Wirtz – Brighton: Welbeck
Liverpool return to the Premier League on Saturday afternoon to host Brighton at Anfield following their 1-0 UCL win at Inter.
Liverpool cannot be written off yet. Even though they conceded a late goal that evened the score against Leeds last weekend and Mo Salah’s public outburst, the Reds have reasons to remain positive. They continue to outperform most teams in the xG stakes. They have an average of 1.71 xG, only 0.01xG lower than league leaders Arsenal.
Their defence is currently underperforming its 1.30 xGA, having conceded 1.60 goals per game on average. Arne Slot hopes this performance will improve in the next few games.
Brighton deserve their eighth-place position. In fact, the Seagulls’ xG data suggests they could be even higher. Albion are currently sixth in the xG table (1.58) and are currently overperforming this metric by +0.09 xG per game.
Albion have been a formidable opponent for Liverpool at Anfield in recent seasons. The Reds have never beaten Brighton by more than a one-goal margin since Albion’s EPL arrival in 2017. However, Brighton have only won one of their eight away games against the red half of Merseyside in the EPL.
Probable lineups for Liverpool vs Brighton
Liverpool expected lineup: Alisson, Kerkez, Jones, Konate, van Dijk, Mac Allister, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai, Wirtz, Ekitike, Isak
Brighton & Hove Albion expected lineup: Verbruggen, Wieffer, De Cuyper, Dunk, van Hecke, Baleba, Gomez, Minteh, Kadıoğlu, Rutter, Welbeck
Advantage in recovery time
Brighton have conceded five of their ten away goals between the 15th and 30th minutes so far this season. With Arne Slot’s men eager to get back into contention for Champions League qualification, they will need to start strongly.
The Reds played in the UCL on Tuesday night, so they have an extra day of rest compared to teams that played on Wednesday.
Liverpool played well even without Salah. In fact, many would argue that they looked more united and stronger. There is no value in backing the Reds to win outright. However, backing them to lead in the first half and maintain that lead to win the match is a smart choice at a modest 40% probability.
- Liverpool vs Brighton Bet 1: Liverpool – Liverpool (Half Time – Full Time) at odds of 2.50 with Betway
Backing two second-half goals or more
Although backing two or more second-half goals is priced slightly lower than preferred, the statistics are very strong. Brighton have scored only nine away goals in the first half.
Meanwhile, Liverpool have netted seven of their 11 home goals in the second period of matches. In addition, seven of their nine home goals conceded have also occurred after the halftime interval.
The betting markets indicate a probability of 58.14% of two or more goals in the second half. However, that percentage should be higher, between 63% and 65%.
- Liverpool vs Brighton Bet 2: Over 1.5 Second Half goals at odds of 1.72 with Betway
Value on Welbeck to net for Brighton
Betway have opted to boost the odds on Danny Welbeck scoring at Anfield this weekend. His price to score anytime is one of six ‘Betway Boosts’ from 2.90 to 3.25. Even at odds of 2.90, this is a value price. His scoring rate has been 46.67% so far this season, and 2.90 gives him a scoring probability of 34.48%.
At 3.25, there’s even more value on Welbeck. The probability decreases to just 30.77%, so there is almost 16% of potential value on this play.
The 35-year-old has been in clinical form for the Seagulls. Given that Brighton have scored in each of their last six visits to Anfield, backing Welbeck to score is a smart play. Liverpool’s defence has been shaky throughout 25/26, as they’ve conceded more goals than any side inside the EPL’s top 12. Therefore, it is unlikely they will prevent Brighton from scoring.
- Liverpool vs Brighton Bet 3: Danny Welbeck to Score at odds of 3.25 with Betway