The head-to-head data and the quarter-final scores imply we back the Overs & BTTs markets for Germany vs Portugal & France vs Spain.
| Nations League Finals Betting Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals (Germany vs Portugal) | 1.72 |
| Both Teams to Score – Yes (Germany vs Portugal) | 1.65 |
| Over 2.5 Goals (Spain vs France) | 2.10 |
| Both Teams to Score – Yes (Spain vs France) | 1.80 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Quarter-final thrillers raise finals hopes
The spotlight will be on Munich’s Allianz Arena and Stuttgart’s MHPArena this week for the Nations League finals. Both stadiums will host one semi-final, with Munich also set to host the 2025 Nations League Final on 8th June.
March's quarter-finals can only be described as a goal fest. They featured no less than 31 goals scored across both legs, 21 of which came in the second legs of each tie.
Both teams scored in three of the four quarter-final ties during the four legs. It’s not very surprising considering the calibre of attacking options among the nations left at this stage of the competition.
Germany and Portugal set for another goal fest
Germany will play against Portugal in the first Nations League semi-final in Munich. They have faced off five times in the last 19 years, and the Germans have won all five.
From a betting perspective, there is value in backing the Over 2.5 goals market based on head-to-head data. At least four goals were scored in four of those five meetings. Their most recent clash at Euro 2020 ended in a 4-2 victory for Germany.
Although Germany have been dominant against the Portuguese recently, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last three competitive games. Both teams have scored in five of Germany’s last seven games and in six of Portugal’s last eight games.
Taking into account the fatigue of defenders after a busy 2024/25 campaign, it might be smart to cover the Overs and Both Teams to Score (Yes) odds.
Yamal and Dembele lead the line in semi-final
Spain and France will also lock horns in Stuttgart in the second Nations League semi-final. The main focus ahead of this contest is the battle between the two current favourites for the 2025 Ballon d’Or.
Spain’s rising talent, Lamine Yamal, is coming up against France’s Ousmane Dembele at the MHPArena. In 2025, Yamal has scored once in two appearances for La Roja. Meanwhile, Dembele has also scored once in two 2025 fixtures for Les Bleus.
France also have La Liga’s top scorer, Kylian Mbappe, in their arsenal. However, the 26-year-old has only scored twice in his last 13 appearances for his country.
Based on the head-to-head data, backing Unders is a good option. Six of the last eight meetings between France and Spain have ended with two or less goals scored.
Looking closer, goals are more likely than not. Three or more goals have been scored in the last five games that involved Spain. Spain have scored first in their last seven games, while France have scored first in seven of their last nine games. This suggests both teams tend to start fast and will aim to get an early advantage.
The betting markets currently have Over 2.5 goals priced at odds against, which is surprising. Given that Spain scored 10 goals in their two-legged quarter-final and France netted four in theirs, the 47.62% is underestimated by at least 10%.
Nations League final could be a tight affair
Although we expect the Nations League semi-finals to feature plenty of goals, the final is likely to be more restrained. The data from the previous three Nations League finals suggests that could be the case, as well.
Two of the three finals have ended with two or less goals scored. In fact, Portugal scored only one goal to defeat the Netherlands in the 2019 final. In 2023, the final ended without a goal after extra time, with the Spaniards winning on penalties against Croatia.
Only the 2021 final between France and Spain saw three or more goals. Interestingly, all three of these goals arrived after 64 minutes. This proves that each Nations League Final has been cagey in its own way.