Every club in the Spanish top flight has played six games following a busy midweek. Big shifts have already happened in the relegation betting market.
| La Liga Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Elche vs Celta Vigo - Draw | 3.10 |
| Barcelona vs Real Sociedad - Barcelona to win to nil | 2.50 |
| Girona to be relegated | Not available |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Girona and Real Sociedad’s struggles and Elche’s top form
There have been a few surprises in the opening weeks of La Liga. Additionally, some trends from last season have continued.
One of those involves Girona, who have slid even further. Following their brilliant third-place finish in the 2023/24 season, they got sucked into a relegation battle last term. However, their veteran striker Cristhian Stuani’s 11 goals have kept them up.
They’ve started the new campaign with just two points from six games, and have lost all of their home fixtures by at least two goals. To make matters worse, they have the worst defensive record in Europe’s big five leagues with 16 conceded so far.
Moreover, their xGA return of 13.8 is only marginally better and also ranks as the worst in the continent’s major divisions.
While their collapse has been less dramatic, Real Sociedad have also struggled over the past 18 months. They’ve not replaced the likes of Robin Le Normand, Mikel Merino, and Martin Zubimendi, who have departed for hefty transfer fees.
Their coach, Imanol Alguacil, lost his job because of the 11th-place finish last term. However, their form has declined even further under his successor Sergio Francisco, and they only escaped the relegation zone in midweek with their first victory.
Elche, who are comfortably the best of the three promoted clubs, have had better results. Aside from Barcelona and Real Madrid, they are the only remaining unbeaten team in the Spanish top flight.
Where might their seasons go from here?
Elche largely owe their success to a clear playing style. Under Eder Sarabia, they aim to dominate the ball, with a league-high average possession of 61.5% in last season’s Segunda Division.
That figure has slightly dropped to 57.7% this term, despite the significant move to the top flight. Only three clubs have controlled the ball more effectively in La Liga, while their pass completion rate is 86.8%.
However, they tend to start their matches slowly. That has contributed to four of their opening six games ending in a draw. Celta Vigo have drawn their last five La Liga matches 1-1, so there is value in a draw in their next fixture.
Elche have enough quality to stay up. With the likes of Espanyol and Alaves also performing better than expected, there aren’t many clear relegation candidates. Newly promoted Real Oviedo and Levante are expected to struggle, but Girona have to be worried.
The Catalans have done some decent business by signing Azzedine Ounahi and Vladyslav Vanat. However, they are still making too many individual errors, and with Michel’s future uncertain, there is potential for things to get even worse.
With the likes of Carlos Soler, Take Kubo, and Mikel Oyarzabal in their squad, Real Sociedad should ultimately stay clear of trouble. However, an improvement on last season’s 11th place seems unlikely.
They are struggling in attack and defence, and are nowhere near clinical enough in the final third. La Real have hit the target with only 28.1% of their shots, having scored with just 6.3% of their attempts so far. They’ll surely struggle this weekend away against a Barcelona side that have won their first two home games to nil.