The Cherries travel to West London sitting 15th in the table. That's seven points shy of Tuesday’s opponents Chelsea, who have won 1 in their last 5.
Best bets for Chelsea vs Bournemouth
- Chelsea -1 (handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.37 with Betway
- 2nd Half (half with most goals) at odds of 2.00 with Betway
- João Pedro to score or assist at odds of 2.10 with Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Chelsea 3-1 Bournemouth
- Goalscorers prediction – Chelsea: Pedro, Neto, Palmer – Bournemouth: Semenyo
It’s fifth versus fifteenth on Tuesday evening. Enzo Maresca’s Blues face Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth, who have been out of sorts in recent weeks.
Chelsea are far from being in top form. The Blues let slip a narrow lead at home to Aston Villa in their most recent EPL game. Joao Pedro’s goal was eventually cancelled out by a brace from Villa’s Ollie Watkins.
Maresca’s men have been involved in plenty of entertaining games of late. Four of their last five EPL games have featured three or more goals with both teams scoring. It’s their inability to consistently keep clean sheets that’s costing them dear of late.
You have to go back to 26 October for Bournemouth’s last EPL victory. Since then, they’ve gone nine matches without a win. Iraola is still without the services of Ben Gannon-Doak, Tyler Adams and Veljko Milosavljevic due to injury.
The Premier League is so unpredictable that the Cherries remain closer to fifth place than to 18th-placed West Ham.
Probable lineups for Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Chelsea expected lineup: Sanchez, Cucurella, Gusto, Chalobah, Badiashile, Fernandez, James, Neto, Garnacho, Palmer, Pedro
AFC Bournemouth expected lineup: Petrovic, Truffert, Smith, Diakite, Senesi, Cook, Tavernier, Jimenez, Semenyo, Kluivert, Evanilson
Backing the Blues to ease the pressure on Maresca
Although it’s not easy to back Chelsea with complete confidence right now, we still see the Blues as the likely pick. When factoring in Bournemouth’s poor recent form and Chelsea’s nine-game unbeaten head-to-head streak, a home win seems like a sensible prediction.
Bournemouth’s recent defensive record gives us confidence to bet against the Cherries at Stamford Bridge. They’ve conceded 15 goals in their last four away games.
Chelsea have scored first in five of their last seven head-to-head match-ups and average 1.67 goals scored per game. The Blues are expected to take charge once again.
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth Bet 1: Chelsea -1 (handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.37 with Betway
More goals after the break at Stamford Bridge
Analyzing the goal distribution data in Chelsea’s home games and Bournemouth’s away games reveals some noteworthy trends. Chelsea have scored seven of their 13 home goals in the second half of matches.
Bournemouth have also let in 16 of their 27 away goals after the break. Chelsea have only conceded one goal in the first half of their home games so far this season.
To that end, it was surprising that the probability of the second half producing more goals than the first came out at only 50%. This appears to be the value bet from our trio of Chelsea vs Bournemouth predictions.
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth Bet 2: 2nd Half (half with most goals) at odds of 2.00 with Betway
Chelsea’s Pedro to contribute a goal or assist
João Pedro has enjoyed a promising start at Chelsea since joining from Brighton this summer. The big-money acquisition has registered nine goal contributions in 18 appearances at a 50% strike rate.
Pedro notched his sixth EPL goal of the season in Chelsea’s 2-1 home defeat to Aston Villa. His poaching instincts helped him sniff out a close-range effort.
He also has three assists to his name so far this season. His on-field relationship with Cole Palmer has serious potential. The betting markets believe there’s only a 47.62% chance of Pedro scoring or assisting against Bournemouth.
This seems low, given his recent form and Bournemouth’s porous backline. He’s also registered two goals and two assists in his previous five EPL clashes against the Cherries with Brighton.
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth Bet 3: João Pedro to score or assist at odds of 2.10 with Betway