Our betting expert expects Atleti to score first, but an even game to develop, with relatively little goalmouth action.
Best bets for Atletico Madrid vs Inter
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00 on Betway
- 1st goal - Atletico Madrid at odds of 1.83 on Betway
- Draw at odds of 3.40 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Atletico Madrid 1-1 Inter
- Goalscorers prediction - Atletico Madrid: Julian Alvarez - Inter: Marcus Thuram
Atletico Madrid enter this match on a five-game winning streak.. They secured a narrow 1-0 win at Getafe over the weekend to move back into contention for the La Liga title.
The Spaniards still have work to do to secure progress in the Champions League. So far, Diego Simeone’s side have won two and lost two in this competition. In contrast, Inter are one of only three teams with a 100% winning record halfway through the league stage.
The Italian giants had won four in a row in all competitions before Sunday’s Milan derby. However, a 1-0 defeat in that game was a major setback for Cristian Chivu’s team.
Probable lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Inter
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Musso, Hancko, Lenglet, Gimenez, Molina, Koke, Gonzalez, Baena, Barrios, Simeone, Alvarez
Inter expected lineup: Sommer, Bastoni, Acerbi, Akanji, Dimarco, Zielinski, Calhanoglu, Barella, Augusto, Martinez, Thuram
Tight game expected in Madrid
While there have been many goals in Atletico’s European games so far this term, this match could see the trend end. Simeone used a more cautious 4-1-4-1 system on Sunday. He may take the same approach in this match, as he is seemingly keen to tighten up defensively.
Los Rojiblancos have only conceded two goals in their last five matches in all competitions. They allowed only 0.9 xG per game on average across that period.
Meanwhile, Inter also appear strong defensively. They’ve not allowed more than 1.3 xG in any match they’ve played this season. The Nerazzurri are under no pressure to secure three points in this match, so this may develop into a low-scoring contest.
- Atletico Madrid vs Inter Bet 1: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00 on Betway
Atleti to score first again
Even when they were struggling earlier in the season, Atletico Madrid tended to start matches quickly. That trend has continued as the campaign has progressed. They’ve scored the first goal in all 13 of their matches in La Liga so far.
Atleti have also netted first in both of their European home games. It took only four minutes for Giacomo Raspadori to score against Eintracht Frankfurt. Meanwhile, Julian Alvarez netted the first goal after only 38 minutes against Union Saint-Gilloise.
The derby against Real Madrid in March was the last truly decisive Champions League match at the Estadio Metropolitano. Atletico also started that game quickly, with Conor Gallagher scoring within the first minute.
Given those trends, backing the hosts to score first offers value with an implied probability of 54.6%.
- Atletico Madrid vs Inter Bet 2: 1st goal - Atletico Madrid at odds of 1.83 on Betway
Inter to leave with a point
The visitors are already in a very strong position to clinch a top-eight finish. However, they do have their four toughest fixtures to come, and their 100% record is highly unlikely to continue.
Inter are the underdogs in this game, but their recent performances have been high. They were unfortunate to lose the Milan derby on Sunday. They had 20 shots and created 1.6 xG, significantly higher totals than their rivals managed.
Chivu’s team have created more xG than their opponents in 88% of their matches this term. They have a clear 3-5-2 structure and certainly have ample experience in this competition.
Atleti have injury concerns over key players Jan Oblak and Marcos Llorente. That only adds to the sense that Inter should be really competitive in this fixture. Backing a draw may be the value bet in the Match Result market, with an implied probability of 29.4%.
- Atletico Madrid vs Inter Bet 3: Draw at odds of 3.40 on Betway