It’s the clash of the unfancied on Wednesday night when Atletico Madrid welcome Borussia Dortmund to the Wanda Metropolitano.
The hosts squeaked past Inter Milan in the round of 16 on penalties after losing their away leg to secure a quarter-final berth for the third time in five years.
However, they last progressed to the semi-finals of the Champions League in 2016/17 and have since been dispatched at this point by RB Leipzig (2020) and Manchester City (2022).
Atleti’s domestic form has been patchy this season as their qualification for this competition next term still hangs in the balance with eight games left to play.
Dortmund find themselves in a similar situation as they’re currently outside the Champions League places in the Bundesliga based on goal difference.
They seemed to have turned the corner with four straight wins but were seen off 1-0 by Stuttgart at home over the weekend.
For the Black and Yellow to make their first semi-final appearance since 2016/17, they’d have to be at their best in the Spanish capital on Wednesday night.
Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Betting Tips
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet @ 2.43 with Betway
- Halftime/fulltime result - Atletico Madrid/Atletico Madrid @ 2.80 with Betway
- Total goals - under 1.5 goals @ 3.45 with Betway
All odds are courtesy of Betway, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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However, they last progressed to the semi-finals of the Champions League in 2016/17 and have since been dispatched at this point by RB Leipzig (2020) and Manchester City (2022).
Atleti’s domestic form has been patchy this season as their qualification for this competition next term still hangs in the balance with eight games left to play.
Dortmund find themselves in a similar situation as they’re currently outside the Champions League places in the Bundesliga based on goal difference.
They seemed to have turned the corner with four straight wins but were seen off 1-0 by Stuttgart at home over the weekend.
For the Black and Yellow to make their first semi-final appearance since 2016/17, they’d have to be at their best in the Spanish capital on Wednesday night.
Shutting up shop
Atletico Madrid have hosted 16 Champions League knockout fixtures at home, whether the Wanda Metropolitano or their old Vicente Calderon, conceding only four goals in all.
Under Diego Simeone, Los Rojiblancos kept 12 clean sheets in that run of games, indicating how important defensive excellence is to the manager.
In the eight fixtures they’ve played this term, Atleti only conceded eight, an average of a goal per game.
The last time these two met in this competition in Spain, it ended with the home side shutting out Dortmund to bag a 2-0 win in the group stage.
With the stakes quite high on Wednesday, Dortmund may struggle to penetrate the host’s defence but will avoid throwing everything into it with the reverse leg still to come.
Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Betting Tip 1: Atletico Madrid clean sheet @ 2.43 with Betway
Unhappy travels
It will concern Dortmund's boss Edin Terzic that his side have only managed three wins in their previous 18 visits to Spain (D5, L10) with five of their last eight ending in defeat.
The hosts have been strong in continental action only suffering one loss, the last 16 fixture at the San Siro.
They’ve been undefeated at home against German opposition in their previous 12 European fixtures, a statistic that suggests only one result here (W8, D4).
Additionally, none of Atleti’s last seven competitive fixtures have been goalless at halftime, supporting our prediction that the hosts could strike early and take that lead to the second leg.
Simeone’s men have taken a halftime lead in four of their six group games in this year’s Champions League.
Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Betting Tip 2: Halftime/fulltime result - Atletico Madrid/Atletico Madrid @ 2.80 with Betway
A slight edge
Both sides are typically free-scoring in their domestic leagues but that hasn’t been the case in the Champions League.
Dortmund’s defence has been slightly better than their hosts in this competition, conceding five goals in eight games at an average of 0.63 goals per game.
Even though Terzic’s side go into this game with better form, their toothless display over the weekend should provide the hosts with the hope to see off the German outfit.
Additionally, Simeone’s troops have had an extra five days' worth of rest than Dortmund, so they should take a slight edge into the second leg.
Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Betting Tip 3: Total goals - under 1.5 goals @ 3.45 with Betway