With both teams winning in midweek, this match between two of the Premier League's top sides is expected to be very interesting.
Best bets for Aston Villa vs Arsenal
- Arsenal to Win at odds of 1.90 with Betway
- Both Teams to Score (No) at odds of 1.87 with Betway
- Bukayo Saka Anytime goalscorer at odds of 3.80 with Betway
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For more qualitative betting tips, don’t hesitate to check our Bets of the Week predictions page!
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal
- Goalscorers prediction – Aston Villa: N/A – Arsenal: Saka, Martinelli
Villa have quickly risen in the standings over the last six weeks with a stunning run of results. Unai Emery’s men have won eight of their last nine EPL fixtures, suffering only one 2-0 defeat against defending champions Liverpool last month.
Villa have been scoring frequently recently, including four goals scored against Brighton in a match that saw a total of seven goals on Wednesday. They also scored four times in a comfortable home win over AFC Bournemouth.
The main injury concern for Emery is goalkeeper, Emi Martinez, who was injured in the warm-up for the Brighton game. Bizot was the Argentine’s deputy and will continue if he does not pass a fitness test.
Arsenal do not have a full squad available right now, but remain five points ahead at the top of the division. The gap to third-placed Villa is six points. The Gunners have conceded just seven goals in 14 games, which is very impressive. This is half the number of goals that Villa have conceded.
Both Kai Havertz and Gabriel are still a few weeks away from returning. However, the likes of Saka, Odegaard, and Martinelli are fit and ready to play, which is a worrying sign for Premier League defences.
Probable lineups for Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Aston Villa expected lineup: Bizot, Maatsen, Cash, Konsa, Torres, Kamara, Onana, Guessand, Rogers, McGinn, Watkins
Arsenal expected lineup: Raya, White, Calafiori, Timber, Hincapie, Rice, Zubimendi, Odegaard, Martinelli, Saka, Merino
Gunners to move further clear at the Premier League summit
Arsenal have won three of their last four visits to Villa Park. They’ve also won ten of their first 14 EPL games so far this season. Their goal difference is 14 goals better than Villa’s modest tally of 20 goals scored.
Despite injury in the final third and backline, Arsenal’s squad depth has enabled them to manage the situation remarkably well. This will also give the Gunners an advantage during weeks in which they play three games.
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta was able to leave the likes of Bukayo Saka and Eberechi Eze on the bench against Brentford. He can rotate his front three players to keep them fresh. Although Villa will compete well, they just won’t have the same energy to keep up with the league leaders.
- Aston Villa vs Arsenal Bet 1: Arsenal to Win at odds of 1.90 with Betway
Huge value on a clean sheet for either side
Arsenal restricted Brentford to just 0.34 xG in their London derby on Wednesday night. The Bees managed just one shot on target. That’s despite the absence of the likes of Gabriel from the Arsenal back line.
Meanwhile, eight of the last ten Premier League meetings between Villa and Arsenal at Villa Park have seen only one team score. It has been the case in the last two games, with Arsenal winning 2-0 last August.
Although Villa netted four goals against Brighton, the fact of the matter is that Villa are only tenth in the xG table. Arsenal’s 0.5 goals conceded per game is actually better than their 0.83 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
- Aston Villa vs Arsenal Bet 2: Both Teams to Score (No) at odds of 1.87 with Betway
Backing Saka to start and score for the visitors
We’ve already mentioned that Arteta had the luxury of keeping Saka on the bench on Wednesday night. The England international got on the scoresheet late on and is likely to feature from the outset on Saturday lunchtime.
Saka has a scoring strike rate of 36.36% so far in this EPL campaign. However, the betting markets indicate there’s only a 26.32% chance of him finding the net at Villa Park.
Betting on Saka to score anytime seems like the value play from our trio of Aston Villa vs Arsenal predictions. He’s currently in the EPL’s 93rd percentile for xG. Saka is ranked even higher (95th percentile) for shots on goal, scoring with 11 of his 23 goal attempts.
- Aston Villa vs Arsenal Bet 3: Bukayo Saka Anytime goalscorer at odds of 3.80 with Betway