MLS Decision Day Preview: Conference champs, home advantage and wild card spots up for grabs

The final day of the MLS Regular Season is here: Decision Day. Just about the only thing we know for sure are the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference, where Inter Miami have dominated and the defending 2023 MLS Cup Champions Columbus Crew have been the best of the rest.

Everything else is still to play for.

This includes an ultra tight race for a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, and settling who will walk out of Decision Day as the Western Conference winner.

MLS Decision Day Betting Tips

• Orlando City SC vs Atlanta United: Orlando to win @ -143 with bet365
• DC United vs Charlotte FC: Christian Benteke to score anytime @ +105 with bet365
• Western Conference League Winner: LAFC @ +275 with bet365

All odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Orlando to wrap up season with a home win

Atlanta United could have one of the most dramatic Decision Days in recent memory. They are currently sat in 12th, but could jump as high as 8th and a wild card spot with a win and if other results go their way.

Unfortunately for them, they need to beat Orlando City SC on the road. Playing away from home has been a weakness for Atlanta all season, with the team going 3-7-6 so far, and now they must face an Orlando side who are in particularly good form.

The Lions have won six of their last seven games, and will be as motivated to win as Atlanta. They are currently in 4th, and a win will guarantee them home advantage during the first round of the playoffs.

A loss, though, would leave them open to being leapfrogged by New York City FC, and needing to pick up some results on the road to progress to the semifinals.

Orlando City are in great form, playing at home, and need a result. As badly as Atlanta will want to win, they struggle on the road and look set to fall just short of making the postseason.

MLS Decision Day Betting Tip 1: Orlando to win @ -143 with bet365

Benteke the surest thing in wild card chaos

Another team caught up in the chaotic Eastern Conference wild card race is DC United. They spend their Decision Day hosting Charlotte FC, who themselves are attempting to move up as high as 5th and improve their playoff seed.

In a game that is too close to call, the one thing that looks most likely is for DC United striker Christian Benteke to get on the scoresheet yet again.

Benteke is running away with the MLS Golden Boot award this year, having scored 23 times already. His closest rivals are Denis Bouanga of LAFC and Cucho Hernandez of Columbus Crew, who both only have 19 goals each.

The Belgian striker is in lethal form at the moment, too, scoring six goals in his last six games and only failing to find the net once.

Charlotte do have an impressive defensive record, only conceding an MLS-best 37 goals all season, however the leaks are starting to show. They’ve conceded in two of their last three matches, including letting the Chicago Fire put three past them.

It’s hard to predict how the wild card race will play out. However, even against a tough Charlotte defense, it’s harder to not look to Benteke to affect things by getting yet another goal for his team.

MLS Decision Day Betting Tip 2: Christian Benteke to score anytime @ +105 with bet365

LAFC with the chance to snatch Western Conference

LA Galaxy currently sit at the top of the Western Conference, and one more point will see them head into the playoffs as the top seed. However, they have nothing sewn up yet, and cross-town rivals Los Angeles FC are ready to pounce and snatch the conference title away.

Currently, LA Galaxy have 64 points and a +20 goal difference, while LAFC are in second with 61 points and +18 on goals. This could easily all change on Decision Day, though.

LAFC have the easiest game of the day, hosting a San Jose Earthquakes side who have been the worst team in MLS all year, scoring just 21 points while conceding 75 goals. LAFC are huge -371 favorites for the game, with the result seemingly beyond doubt.

Things are very different for LA Galaxy. They are +225 underdogs for a tough road game against the Houston Dynamo, who are undefeated in their last four games at home and big +105 favorites.

Houston will be determined to win and hold their 5th spot too, especially as a loss could see them drop as far as 7th and make their path to the MLS Cup much harder. Meanwhile, LA Galaxy have struggled to get results on the road all season long and have a surprisingly poor 6-6-4 record.

This leaves a very possible scenario where the LA Galaxy lose and LAFC win, flipping their standings in the league.

A parlay on Houston and LAFC wins only pays out at around +160. While this is still a great wager, the best way to get value is to back LAFC to win the Western Conference title.

The only added risk is if both LAFC and LA Galaxy end on the same amount of points and with the same goal difference, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, where the Galaxy have an eight goal advantage.

While this wager does need two results to go the right way to hit, both are extremely likely. The best way to find value is to back LAFC to usurp their rivals on Decision Day and take the Western Conference title.

MLS Decision Day Betting Tip 3: Western Conference League Winner: LAFC @ +275 with bet365