Defences rarely make the headlines, but Spain’s backline could be profitable in the Round of 32 game. Value on them to win with a clean sheet is big.
| Spain vs Austria World Cup 2026 markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spain to win to nil | 1.90 |
| Spain to win both halves | 2.62 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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La Roja’s backline is the 2026 World Cup’s gold standard
Spain come into the knockout stages of the 2026 World Cup with a defensive backline resembling a brick wall. With a hat-trick of clean sheets to their name so far, La Roja are proving a formidable prospect to break down.
Their expected goals against (xGA) sits at just 0.54, averaging under 0.20 per game. This proves that high-quality chances created against the Spaniards have been rare so far this summer.
The shot data tells a similar story. Spain have only faced 14 shots in total. No country has allowed fewer than this at the time of writing. Better still, just three of those goal attempts have forced a save from keeper Unai Simón. Only Argentina (2) have allowed fewer goal attempts on target so far.
Spain’s control of Uruguay turned their doubters into believers
Luis de la Fuente’s side also overcame a stiff test of their defensive solidity against Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay. The Uruguayan attack was comfortably the most dangerous forward line of Spain’s group stage opponents. They produced 4.24 xG prior to meeting Spain and racked up 49 shots, 13 of which were on target.
Then they ran into Spain and suddenly became blunt in front of goal. Uruguay were restricted to just five shots, with only one finding the target. They had arrived in top form, with strong attacking intent and quality. Yet, Spain neutralised their offensive threats with relative ease.
The xG data reads even more impressively, with Uruguay amassing just 0.1 xG per half.
Austria’s free-flowing forward line could hit a brick wall
Spain’s passage into the knockout stages was inevitable, thanks to their watertight defence. In the new Round of 32, they lock horns with an Austrian side that have enjoyed themselves in front of goal recently.
Austria scored six goals in their three group stage matches. That came from an xG of just 3.71, suggesting some clinical finishing. Austria have scored six goals from 27 shots, which is a conversion rate of just under 25%.
The danger for Austria is that Uruguay’s attacking metrics were even better prior to their clash with Spain. Yet, La Roja managed to shut down Bielsa’s men with relative ease. Ralf Rangnick’s men should brace for a similarly chilly welcome.
This is precisely where the betting value lies in this upcoming tie. Currently, the betting markets believe that Spain have only a 52.63% chance of beating Austria in 90 minutes with a clean sheet.
This probability seems undervalued given Spain’s defensive structure so far this summer. Spain have also been given just a 33% chance of winning both halves against Austria. That’s despite Uruguay registering just 0.1 xG per half. This data hints at full Spanish control across both halves.
If Austria fail to threaten in either half, this bet could be very tempting.