The Spaniards are yet to concede a single goal at this summer’s finals, yet France are the clear favourites. Here’s why La Roja is being underrated.
| 2026 World Cup Outright Winner Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spain (Winner) | 5.00 |
| Spain (To Reach the Final) | 2.75 |
| Spain (To Beat Belgium) | 1.61 |
Odds courtesy of YesPlay. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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The implied probability on France has steamed too far
Before the tournament started, Spain were the strong favourites to lift the 2026 World Cup - and with good reason. They came into this as European champions, unbeaten in 35 internationals and armed with the deepest pool of midfield options in world football.
Yet their goalless draw with Cape Verde seemed to leave the betting markets in a state of shock. Their underwhelming showing without Lamine Yamal left some pondering whether the Spanish were becoming a one-man team.
Following the Cape Verde debacle, France were installed as the new favourites to be crowned world champions. The markets suggest they have a 33.33% chance of doing so.
Yet they still have to win three more matches, starting with a Morocco side that eliminated Spain and Portugal en route to the 2022 semi-finals.
For sure, France have incredible attacking depth, but a one-in-three chance of lifting the trophy seems generous, especially with three knockout hurdles remaining. It leaves precious little margin for a single off-day, an injury, or a red card.
Meanwhile, Spain are now given just a 20% chance of winning the tournament. That’s despite responding to the Cape Verde draw with five wins and five clean sheets.
When the team producing the tournament's best underlying numbers is nearly twice the price of the favourite, the value case starts to write itself.
Spain’s defence is performing in all metrics
Spain have become the first nation ever to record six consecutive clean sheets at the World Cup, five of them this summer. Even against Portugal in the last 16, Cristiano Ronaldo was the only Portuguese player to muster a shot on target all night.
What makes the streak so instructive for the outright market is how it is being achieved. This is not the Spain of Puyol, Hierro or Ramos, a back line built on stern, last-ditch defending. Although Pau Cubarsí and Aymeric Laporte are excellent and Unai Simón has been quietly effective, the real shield is a territorial one.
With Rodri dictating tempo and Pedri and Dani Olmo recycling possession high up the pitch, opponents simply cannot get near Spain's defensive third. Suffocate the supply, and the defence barely needs to defend - and the stats don’t lie.
Spain are averaging just 1 shot on target against per 90 minutes, and their 1.49 expected goals against is the lowest total in the entire tournament - a mere 0.30 xGA per 90.
The most explosive attack rarely wins major tournaments. They are won by teams who keep clean sheets, and nobody in this field concedes less.
La Roja have never lost to Belgium inside 90 minutes
Spain face a Belgian side who have largely underwhelmed up to this point next. The USA blew up in their 4-1 loss to Belgium in the last 16, rather than Belgium being in spectacular form.
This is precisely the match-up that Spain’s system is built to neutralise. Belgium thrive on vertical transitions. La Roja’s dominance of the ball deprives opponents of exactly those moments. History gives us even greater confidence. Spain have never lost to Belgium in 90 minutes across seven meetings.
If they overcome the Belgians, Spain face a probable semi-final with France. On the face of it, a daunting tie. However, it’s one where the tournament's meanest defence meets a French side thathave appeared vulnerable against organised opposition