Morocco haven’t tasted defeat in their last 34 games across all competitions. Do France have what it takes to end the Atlas Lions’ winning streak?
Best bets for France vs Morocco
- Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.90 with Yesplay
- Draw or Morocco (Double chance) at odds of 1.95 with Yesplay
- Kylian Mbappe 3+ Shots on target at odds of 2.25 with Yesplay
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: France 2-2 Morocco
- Goalscorers prediction: France: Mbappe, Dembele - Morocco: Saibari, Hakimi
Kylian Mbappé's France will face off against Morocco in an entertaining World Cup quarter-final in Boston. It's a rematch of the 2022 semi-final, which France won 2-0. Morocco will be eager for revenge.
France enter this encounter as the unsurprising favourites. They've been ruthless, scoring 14 goals in five games. Mbappé’s penalty saw off Paraguay 1-0 in the last 16. Mbappé leads the Golden Boot chart along with Lionel Messi and Erling Haaland, with seven goals to their names.
There are injury concerns, though. Aurélien Tchouaméni (thigh) and Marcus Thuram (calf) both missed the Paraguay win. Their fitness is the key concern for Deschamps.
Under Mohamed Ouahbi’s tutelage, the Atlas Lions of Morocco continue to defy all expectations. They defeated co-hosts Canada 3-0 in the last 16, with Ounahi getting on the scoresheet twice. Before this, they also knocked out a smart Netherlands side on penalties.
The Atlas Lions are difficult to beat. They're undefeated in 34 internationals. Their main question is up top: whether to start with a focal point striker or their fluid front line. Either way, this game has all the makings of a classic. France have scored first in their last nine games, while the Moroccans have scored first in seven of their last nine matches.
Probable Lineups for France vs Morocco
France expected lineup: Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne, Rabiot, Kone, Olise, Dembele, Barcola Mbappe
Morocco expected lineup: Bounou; Hakimi, Mazraoui, Riad, Diop, El Aynaoui, Bouaddi, Diaz, Ounahi, El Khannouss, Saibari
Backing three or more goals scored
France have been in stunning form in the final third, scoring 14 goals in five games. They’ve also registered an average of 8.5 shots on target per game. That’s a tournament-high at the time of writing.
Les Bleus have cleared the Over 2.5 Goals bet in four of those five matches. The only exception was their grinding 1-0 victory over Paraguay’s low block.
A key factor in Morocco’s unbeaten record and continued success has been their miserly defence. However, they showed in their 3-0 win over Canada that they carry a serious threat going forward too. The probability of 3+ goals being scored is just over 50%. That’s why there is value in this bet.
- France vs Morocco Bet 1: Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.90 with Yesplay
Value on Morocco to avoid defeat in normal time
We’ve already touched upon Morocco’s unbeaten record, but it’s true that Morocco simply don’t know when they are beaten. They’ve made a habit of frustrating top international sides. A 1-1 draw with Brazil in the group stage was creditable, followed by their penalty shootout win over the Dutch.
If Morocco utilise a low block, this could prove effective against Didier Deschamps’ men. France found it tough to create against Paraguay, who adopted similar tactics.
Under Mohamed Ouahbi, the Atlas Lions seem to stay compact and hit quickly in transition via Hakimi. We can back the draw or a Morocco win in 90 minutes at a meagre 41.67% probability. It’s hard to believe France has almost a 60% chance of winning in 90 minutes against a team that’s proven so durable in the last 12-18 months.
- France vs Morocco Bet 2: Draw or Morocco (Double chance) at odds of 1.95 with Yesplay
Additional value on Mbappe to keep Bounou on his toes
As it stands, Kylian Mbappe averages 3.4 shots on target per game. No other player can better that average in the tournament.
Mbappe operates centrally as the focal point of France's attack, which posts a tournament-high 8.5 shots on target per game. The shot volume is there for this pick to pay off.
The betting markets suggest there’s only a 36.36% chance of Mbappe hitting the target three or more times versus Morocco. Given that he has a 100% strike rate of doing so in each game up to this point, this percentage feels surprisingly thin. In fact, it’s arguably the top value bet among this week’s trio of France vs Morocco predictions.
- France vs Morocco Bet 3: Kylian Mbappe 3+ shots on target at odds of 2.25 with Yesplay