Our betting expert shares his predictions for this Southern African derby. South Africa, playing at home, should record their third win on the trot.
Best bets for South Africa vs Kenya
- Which team to score - Only South Africa at odds of 1.59 on Betway
- Totals - Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.69 on Betway
- Half-time/Full-time - South Africa/South Africa at odds of 1.74 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: South Africa 2-0 Kenya
- Goalscorers prediction: South Africa: Oswin Appollis, Puso Dithejane
The second Pitso Mosimane-era as South Africa's head coach has started positively. Bafana Bafana won both Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers during the previous international window. South Africa enter this window with an upcoming double header against Kenya at the top of Group D, with qualification for the finals increasingly likely.
Two wins during this window would place Bafana Bafana in a strong position to book their ticket to next year’s tournament. However, with co-hosts Kenya already guaranteed a place at the finals, only the group winners can claim the remaining qualification spot. Mosimane has selected his strongest available squad.
Benni McCarthy will lead Kenya to the country of his birth, although his side have no qualification pressure to contend with. They’ve won just one point from their first two matches and sit bottom of the group ahead of their trip to Orlando Stadium. Nevertheless, the Harambee Stars will be eager to secure a victory, primarily to boost their confidence.
Kenya haven’t won a competitive match since their meeting with Grenada in March this year in a competition where they finished third. McCarthy is aware of the challenge facing his side, particularly on the road.
However, he hopes his players can make life difficult for South Africa and take some confidence from the performance into next week's return fixture.
Probable lineups for South Africa vs Kenya
South Africa expected lineup: Williams, Matuludi, Okon, Mbokazi, Modiba, Mokoena, Sithole, Appollis, Mofokeng, Dithejane, Foster
Kenya expected lineup: Omondi, Onyango, Harper, Odhiambo, Owino, Ochieng, Okwaro, Bajaber, Olunga, Ogam, Obiero
McCarthy’s men need to improve
Mosimane will be confident that his defence can keep Kenya at bay in this fixture. South Africa have done well in their qualifiers, conceding just one goal in two games. During the previous international window, Bafana also kept a clean sheet against Egypt in a friendly fixture.
Three of South Africa’s last five matches saw them score at least once and keep a clean sheet. Kenya’s lack of firepower in the attacking third will seriously concern McCarthy. As a marksman himself, he must be disappointed with his team scoring just once across three games in the previous international window.
The Harambee Stars failed to find the back of the net on five occasions across their previous 10 outings. That record makes them worth backing to draw another blank on Friday. South Africa kept Kenya out in their only two previous head-to-heads.
- South Africa vs Kenya Betting Tip 1: Which team to score - Only South Africa at odds of 1.59 on Betway
Expect a low-scoring contest on Friday
Although the visitors may struggle to get on the scoresheet, that does not necessarily mean South Africa will run away with the game. Historically, Bafana Bafana have been quite modest in attack and have rarely scored more than twice.
Across their previous 10 outings, the home side have scored more than two goals on just one occasion. Seven of those 10 fixtures saw the goal count fall short of the three-goal mark, which is what we expect at the Orlando Stadium. Kenya, meanwhile, have seen fewer than three goals scored in each of their last three matches.
The Harambee Stars have seen six of their last 10 matches finish with fewer than three goals scored. Of the two head-to-heads, one of them finished with just two goals scored. Bafana scored nine goals in their recent five matches, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which is the likely total on Friday.
- South Africa vs Kenya Betting Tip 2: Totals - Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.69 on Betway
South Africa to take control early
Playing at home in Orlando, South Africa can count on strong support from the stands from the opening whistle. Mosimane’s troops have already shown they can dominate matches from the start. Although South Africa may not score freely against Kenya, they could take a first-half lead and maintain it after the break.
Bafana Bafana won both of their AFCON qualifiers at half-time and full-time. Kenya, meanwhile, went into the half-time break on the losing end in both of their AFCON matches. With relatively little at stake for the visitors, they could suffer another half-time/full-time defeat against South Africa.
The hosts are also in better form, having won their last three matches, including a victory over Egypt during the previous international window. The visitors haven’t won any of their last three outings, drawing twice and losing once. Having won the previous two meetings, Bafana are favourites to prevail here and take a lead into half-time.
- South Africa vs Kenya Betting Tip 3: Half-time/Full-time - South Africa/South Africa at odds of 1.74 on Betway