Villa have won their last three EPL games at home to Manchester City. The underlying data doesn’t suggest a fourth home win on the spin is likely.
Best bets for Aston Villa vs Manchester City
- Both teams to score (No) at odds of 2.40 with Betway
- Man City -1 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.70 with Betway
- Rayan Cherki to score or assist at odds of 1.70 with Betway
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-2 Manchester City
- Goalscorers prediction: Manchester City: Cherki, Foden
League leaders Manchester City travel to Villa Park for a Saturday lunchtime clash with Unai Emery’s men. They aim to secure an eighth straight EPL win.
Villa have fallen well short of expectations so far this season. The 2025/26 Europa League winners have seemingly been more focused on their Champions League campaign. They currently sit 12th, with eight points from their first seven games.
Scoring goals has been a huge problem for Villa. They average just one goal per game so far in 2026/27. Currently 16th in the Premier League’s xG table, they created just 8.5 xG compared with Manchester City’s 15.1. Aaron Wan-Bissaka (hamstring) is still sidelined, while there’s concern surrounding young talent Johan Manzambi, who faces a late fitness test.
While Manchester City are dealing with serious off-field consequences, their performances on the pitch have been impressive. Seven straight wins have seen Enzo Maresca’s side storm to the top of the table.
Despite resting several players for their midweek Champions League game with AEK Athens, they still ran out 5-1 winners. Maresca appears to have his squad working well together, although injuries are starting to mount. Antoine Semenyo (leg) is absent this weekend. Meanwhile, Mateo Kovacic, Matheus Nunes and Nico O’Reilly will undergo fitness checks before the trip to Birmingham.
Probable lineups for Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Aston Villa expected lineup: Suzuki, Maatsen, Cash, Lindelof, Mings, Gomes, Kamara, Mbaye, Alysson, Buendia, Jackson
Manchester City expected lineup: Donnarumma, Khusanov, Dias, Guehi, O’Reilly, Fernandez, Bouaddi, Cherki, Foden, Doku, Haaland
Data suggests City could keep a rare clean sheet
City have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 meetings with Aston Villa. This makes a bet on Both Teams to Score (No) a potentially unexpected selection for this weekend’s fixture.
However, the underlying data on Aston Villa is far from encouraging. Emery’s men sit 18th in the league for big chances created (12). They also sit bottom of the table for shots on target per match (3.1). Villa are also 15th in the league for touches in the opposition box (144).
With City averaging 64.3% possession so far this term, Villa will likely be restricted to even fewer sights of goal than usual. We’re backing Both Teams to Score (No) at an implied probability of just 41.67%.
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City Bet 1: Both teams to score (No) at odds of 2.40 with Betway
Backing City to win by at least a two-goal margin
Two of City’s three Premier League away games have resulted in wins by a three-goal margin. They also won 1-0 at Old Trafford despite playing the second half with ten men.
If, as expected, City stifle Villa and limit their possession and goal attempts, City should secure another convincing victory. City average 2.67 goals scored per away game in 2026/27.
Should they come close to this average again at Villa Park, there is every chance they win by at least a two-goal margin here. We can back that outcome at a surprisingly low 37.04% implied probability.
This could be the value bet from our Aston Villa vs Manchester City predictions, especially as City’s underlying data supports their impressive start to 2026/27. Johan Manzambi missing out through injury for Villa would also strengthen our case. Manzambi has contributed to four of Villa’s seven goals scored.
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City Bet 2: Man City -1 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.70 with Betway
Cherki is still one of City’s top EPL performers
Rayan Cherki is still the value pick for City in the ‘To Score or Assist’ market. The French international has an EPL rating of 8.04 out of 10 with FotMob. That’s only narrowly below City’s top performer Erling Haaland (8.08).
Cherki has racked up six goal contributions in as many appearances so far this Premier League campaign. He’s played 395 minutes in the league, so this works out at a goal contribution every 66 minutes.
We can still back him to find the net or create a goal this weekend at a modest 58.82% implied probability. With Antoine Semenyo sidelined for several weeks, the onus is on Cherki to be City’s creator-in-chief.
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City Bet 3: Rayan Cherki to score or assist at odds of 1.70 with Betway