The Premier League’s best defensive records go head to head on Saturday lunchtime, with just seven goals conceded between Arsenal and Leeds this term.
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Best bets for Arsenal vs Leeds United
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10 with Betway
- Arsenal to win (1st half) at odds of 1.75 with Betway
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin 2+ shots on target at odds of 3.80 with Betway
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Leeds United
- Goalscorers prediction: Arsenal: Saka, Gyokeres
Arsenal host fifth-placed Leeds on Saturday lunchtime. Both teams return from a three-week international break.
The Gunners lost 3-0 at Brighton in their fifth league game of the season. They sit second with 12 points, three behind leaders Manchester City. Their home record has been rock-solid, winning four in a row at the Emirates.
Their defeat at Brighton was a reality check after an otherwise solid start to the 2026/27 campaign. Arteta won’t stand for many more performances like that. The Gunners are without William Saliba against Leeds. Meanwhile, Christos Tzolis, Kai Havertz, Declan Rice, Cristhian Mosquera and Ben White will be assessed before the game.
Leeds arrive in north London unbeaten in their first five matches of the season. They sit with nine points, having drawn three of their five fixtures. Their last outing before the international window was an emphatic 4-1 win over Newcastle.
Daniel Farke’s main attacking threat, Dominic Calvert-Lewin bagged a brace against the Magpies. His form earned him a call-up to the England squad. He has three goals in five starts so far this term. Leeds will be without Joe Rodon and Harry Wilson this weekend through injury.
Probable lineups for Arsenal vs Leeds United
Arsenal expected lineup: Raya, Calafiori, Gabriel, Konsa, Timber, Guimarães, Rice, Eze, Ødegaard, Saka, Gyokeres
Leeds United expected lineup: Trafford, Muharemović, Elvedi, Justin, Gudmundsson, Tanaka, Ampadu, Stach, Bogle, Okafor, Calvert-Lewin
Arsenal and Leeds boast strong defensive records
Both defences have been excellent this season. Arsenal have conceded only four goals in five games. Leeds have conceded just three goals, making their defensive record even stronger.
Arsenal’s defensive record is better than the four goals conceded suggest. Three of those goals came in their defeat at Brighton, while they have conceded just once across their other four games.
Leeds have also shown they can keep games tight. 60%of their games this term have ended in draws. Arsenal's games have averaged 2.4 goals, compared with just 2.0 for Leeds. Neither side has been involved in many high-scoring games, which makes under 2.5 goals at 2.10 an appealing option.
- Arsenal vs Leeds United Bet 1: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10 with Betway
Arsenal to lead at half-time
Arsenal have dominated the early stages of this fixture in recent meetings. They have led at half-time in each of their last six games against Leeds and have scored first in the last eight encounters.
The 3-0 defeat at Brighton was a rare setback for the Gunners, who have otherwise been formidable at the Emirates. They have won their last four home games and should be well placed to establish an early advantage here.
Leeds have defended well this season, but Arsenal have the quality to put them under pressure from the outset. The market gives the Gunners a 57.1% implied probability of leading at half-time, despite this outcome landing in each of the last six meetings between the sides.
- Arsenal vs Leeds United Bet 2: Arsenal to win (1st half) at odds of 1.75 with Betway
Calvert-Lewin can test Arsenal’s defence
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has quickly established himself as Leeds’ main attacking threat. He has registered seven shots on target in 421 minutes, averaging 1.50 per 90.
His shot volume matches his end product. He has scored three goals in five starts and recorded 3.12 xG (expected goals). He also ranks in the 93rd percentile for aerial duels, which could be particularly important against an Arsenal side missing William Saliba.
Arsenal will have to cope without one of their strongest defenders when facing a striker who has made an impact both in front of goal and in the air. Calvert-Lewin’s 1.50 shots on target per 90 provide a strong statistical case for backing him to test the Arsenal goalkeeper.
The market implies a 26.3% probability of Calvert-Lewin recording at least two shots on target. His current form, shot volume and importance to Leeds’ attack make this one of the more appealing options in our Arsenal vs Leeds predictions.
- Arsenal vs Leeds United Bet 3: Dominic Calvert-Lewin 2+ shots on target at odds of 3.80 with Betway