Only three points currently separate the top five in the Italian top flight. A host of clubs are targeting Champions League qualification.
| Serie A top-four finish | Odds |
|---|---|
| Roma | 1.62 |
| Juventus | 2.00 |
| Bologna | 4.00 |
| Como | 5.50 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Roma
While they are not expected to win the title, Roma are the current leaders in Serie A. Their new boss, Gian Piero Gasperini, has made an impressive start after ending a long spell at Atalanta in the summer.
That has seen them emerge as the favourites behind the Milan clubs and Napoli in the top-four market. They are currently given an implied probability of 61.7% of finishing in the first four positions. However, there are already a few obvious flaws emerging, so they don’t seem like a value bet at those odds.
Roma have the best defensive record in Serie A, but the main issue is the lack of goals. They have scored just 15 times in their opening 12 fixtures. Only Udinese have netted fewer in the top half.
Gasperini already appears to have lost faith in strikers Artem Dovbyk and Evan Ferguson. The pair have scored just three times between them so far in the league.
Matias Soule has impressed with four goals from a deeper position. However, the attack still lacks cohesion in the final third.
With 27 points, I Giallorossi are significantly outperforming their xPTS (expected points) total of 18.9. That suggests they may fall back over the coming weeks and months.
Juventus
Juventus were the first Serie A club to make a managerial change this season. They sacked Igor Tudor after a run of eight games without a victory in all competitions. The experienced Luciano Spalletti replaced him in October and has made an unbeaten start.
Their goal threat has certainly increased since the change. Juve have averaged 2.1 xG in their first six matches under Spalletti. That’s compared to just 1.2 xG in their final six games under Tudor.
The Turin-based side created a season-high 3.4 xG against Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League in midweek. However, a favourable run of fixtures has certainly helped boost their form.
There have already been some disappointing results under Spalletti, most notably a goalless home derby draw against Torino. It’d therefore be premature to suggest that Juventus are back as a serious force.
Their goal difference of +4 remains the lowest of the teams in the top eight. Like Roma, Juventus are having trouble getting their strikers to convert chances. Summer signing Jonathan David has netted only once in 11 Serie A outings to date.
With so many other teams in the top-four hunt, it’s hard to fancy Juve with an implied probability of 50%.
Bologna
To find value in this market, it may be necessary to look towards one of the smaller clubs. Bologna were given a 16.7% chance of finishing in the top four before the season started. Despite being only three points off the top, their odds have only shortened slightly.
The underlying numbers are encouraging. Their averages of 1.8 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game are both positive. Bologna currently rank fifth with 19.3 xPTS, which suggests they are performing in line with expectations.
Only Roma and Como have better defensive records in Serie A. No team’s goalkeepers have had to make fewer saves. They also rank third for xGA (expected goals against) with 12.3 and second for clean sheets with six.
At the other end of the pitch, they have created 29 big chances, the third-best record in the division. That strongly suggests they are not solely reliant on their defence.
They will also soon have Ciro Immobile back. The experienced striker scored 15 times for Besiktas in the Turkish Super Lig last term. He’s not played since picking up an injury just 30 minutes into the new Serie A season.
Immobile’s return is imminent, and he could have a key role to play in some upcoming matches. Bologna are to face Lazio, Juventus, Inter, Atalanta and Como before the middle of January.
Their overall performance levels have been strong enough to suggest they can get points from several of those fixtures. They currently seem like the value bet for a top-four finish in Serie A.
Como
Como’s underlying data is also quite strong. Cesc Fabregas’ side rank fourth for xPTS with 19.9, while they’ve only lost one Serie A match so far. Some heavy investment in the squad in recent transfer windows appears to be paying off.
Under the guidance of the former Arsenal and Barcelona star, Como favour a possession-based approach. They’ve averaged a 60.8% share of the ball so far, which is the most in Serie A.
Having such a clear idea of how they want to play can be viewed as both a strength and a weakness. On one hand, it has made it easier for the Lombardy-based club to target a specific type of player. It also allows new signings to have a clear idea of their role.
However, it can also make them slightly predictable. This may explain why half of their league games so far have ended in draws.
Offensively, they rely heavily on Nico Paz. The 21-year-old has either scored or assisted 53% of their league goals so far. Should the Argentine playmaker lose form or get injured, they could easily slide down the table.
This is also a very young Como side, and they may lack the consistency needed to deliver over 38 games. The top four may be just beyond them, but a top-six challenge is a realistic goal.