Our betting expert expects the final to be nervy, just like the two semi-finals. Ultimately, Senegal should upstage the hosts.
Best bets for Senegal vs Morocco
- Overs/unders - under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.44 on Betway
- Double chance - Senegal/draw at odds of 1.54 on Betway
- Anytime goalscorer - Sadio Mane at odds of 4.30 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Senegal 1-0 Morocco
- Goalscorers prediction: Senegal: Sadio Mane
Senegal appear destined to pick up their second Africa Cup of Nations title this year. This final is their third across their previous four AFCON appearances. They’ve enjoyed a positive tournament, combining great football with positive results.
The Lions of Teranga’s biggest test at this edition came in the semi-final against one of the pre-tournament favourites, Egypt. Despite not putting the Pharaohs to the sword, the West African nation found a way to carve a path through to the final.
Now that they’re here, Pape Thiaw’s men won’t look back in their quest for that second star. They faced North African opponents in their last two finals, winning one and losing the other.
Morocco hope they can replicate Algeria’s result in the 2019 AFCON final, when the Desert Foxes beat Senegal 1-0. Their unbeaten run at their home tournament shows it could happen, matching the perfect record of their opponents.
The Atlas Lions needed an extra bit of fortune in their semi-final against Nigeria, as that match went to a penalty shootout. Nigerian penalties were disappointing to say the least, and none of their reliable attackers stepped up. Nonetheless, the hosts find themselves in their home final and on the precipice of ending a 50-year wait for an AFCON trophy.
Probable lineups for Senegal vs Morocco
Senegal expected lineup: Mendy, Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Diouf, Diarra, I. Gueye, P. Gueye, Ndiaye, Mane, Jackson
Morocco expected lineup: Bono, Hakimi, Aguerd, Masina, Mazraoui, El Khannouss, El Aynaoui, Saibari, Diaz, El Kaabi, Ezzalzouli
History to repeat itself
With Africa’s top prize on the line, both sides are likely to be cautious. They’ll be wary of committing too many players forward and leaving gaps at the back. It’s a sensible approach in a huge continental final, and Senegal’s most recent results show a similar pattern.
The Lions of Teranga blew Sudan away 3-1 in the Round of 16, but they could only muster 1-0 victories against Mali and Egypt. With the players the West Africans have up front, they will always carry a goal threat. It can even come from a moment of individual brilliance.
What Morocco will find difficult is getting through the Senegalese defence, led by Kalidou Koulibaly. They’ve kept two consecutive clean sheets, part of a run of four in six AFCON fixtures. This shows just how difficult they are to score against.
The hosts failed to score in regulation time in the semi-final, and all three of their most recent games produced fewer than three goals. Historically, eight of the last 10 AFCON finals ended with goals at a premium, with two or fewer scored (80%). As a result, we could witness the same in Rabat on Sunday night.
- Senegal vs Morocco Betting Tip 1: Overs/unders - under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.44 on Betway
Final jitters to haunt the hosts
Morocco are favourites to lift the trophy at the end of Sunday night. However, we’ve seen many upsets in the past, especially at AFCON. Nobody gave Cote d’Ivoire a chance of winning the 2023 edition against Nigeria, but they did. Morocco picked up the results they needed throughout this tournament, but they haven’t been entirely convincing.
This is the first competitive fixture between the two nations in 20 years. During those two decades, Morocco won five friendlies, while Senegal won once. However, those numbers won’t matter when there’s a trophy waiting at the end of the game.
Senegal can lean on their experience in AFCON finals, this being their third since 2019. They’ve been on both sides of the result and have a better understanding of what’s expected on the grandest continental stage.
Morocco are likely to be nervy, especially in front of their home fans. Furthermore, this is their first final appearance since 2004, so they don’t really know how to get over the line. The visitors will likely capitalise on that and win inside 90 minutes or in extra time.
- Senegal vs Morocco Betting Tip 2: Double chance - Senegal/draw at odds of 1.54 on Betway
Stepping up when it matters most
Both sides boast players capable of turning the game. For Morocco, Brahim Diaz should inspire the home faithful. The Real Madrid man netted five goals at this tournament, but he failed to find the net in the last game.
Meanwhile, Senegal have several goalscorers to call upon. Sadio Mane has taken on both scoring and creating roles at this AFCON. With two goals and three assists, only Ademola Lookman secured more assists for his teammates.
Mane, however, is a clutch player. He scored the winner against Egypt in the semi-final. If Senegal are to be successful in this final, he will likely be the source of joy.
- Senegal vs Morocco Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Sadio Mane at odds of 4.30 on Betway