5 bets for the midweek fixtures in the Brazilian Serie A

A draw-filled previous round has made the results market more difficult to navigate. Meanwhile, the BTTS market is supported by statistical trends.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Midweek chaos requires careful picks

There are five midweek picks in the Brazilian Serie A as the fixtures come thick and fast. Three of the tips are on the 1x2 market, with Flamengo and Fluminense soaring high in the table and delivering strong performances. Corinthians have the historical advantage over their opponents. Meanwhile, the other two rely on Both Teams To Score trends built from season-long scoring and defensive data.

The BTTS selections follow a different approach. Mirassol and Cruzeiro both offer profiles that are more reliable in goal markets than in result-based bets. They are worth backing either because they score and concede regularly or because their opponents do the same. However, their inconsistent results make them harder to trust in the match winner market.

Internacional vs Flamengo - Title hopefuls to capitalise on Internacional’s poor form

These two are poles apart in the Serie A standings. Recent form is the key factor behind the visitors being favoured. The Mengao grabbed four wins and a draw from their last five league games, giving them an 80% win rate during that period.

The hosts have lost four of their last five league matches, which has moved them closer to the relegation zone. Their slightly superior goal difference is the only thing keeping them above the drop zone. Internacional have conceded nine goals in their last four matches, scoring only twice in that run.

The home side conceded an xG of 2.80 against Athletico Paranaense. To put that number into perspective, Flamengo average an xG of 1.50 per 90 compared to Athletico Paranaense’s 1.41. The Scarlet and Black have scored 10 more goals than Athletico on the road this term, averaging 1.90 goals per game.

Those numbers strengthen the case for an away victory during the week for Flamengo. The head-to-head record supports the visitors here. The travelling party are unbeaten in their last three league meetings with Internacional. The corresponding fixture finished 3-1 to Flamengo last season in Porto Alegre.

Fluminense vs Bahia - Flu to edge top-four challengers

Fluminense's home form is the main reason to back them against Bahia at the Maracana. The Serie A table suggests this should be competitive rather than one-sided. Fluminense are in fourth on 33 points, and Bahia are sixth on 31. That two-point gap is also reflected in their recent performances.

Both sides have won two of their most recent five matches in all competitions. The hosts have lost just one of their last 10, and they can capitalise on Bahia’s low confidence away from home. Bahia have failed to win any of their last four away league matches, conceding eight goals in the process.

Fluminense have won 70% of their home league matches, losing only once. Meanwhile, Bahia's away win rate stands at 44%. The hosts have the edge in the head-to-head record, remaining unbeaten across the last four meetings. They won the most recent home league meeting 2-0 and also secured victory in a friendly between the clubs earlier in July.

On the goals front, the home side have scored just one more than their visitors. Meanwhile, they both conceded 25 goals in their 20 Serie A matches. As a result, it’s worth backing home advantage to be the difference for Flu.

Mirassol vs Remo - Leaky defences on both sides

Mirassol and Remo are both stuck in the relegation zone. While that adds pressure on each team, it also creates an angle in the ‘BTTS-Yes’ market. Only a point separates the hosts from the visitors, although Mirassol have a game in hand.

This fixture is an opportunity for both teams to get one over a fellow relegation candidate. That could lead to a flurry of goals. Mirassol's defensive record is the clearest reason to look at this market. They’ve kept just one clean sheet in 19 matches and saw 63% of all their league fixtures produce goals at both ends.

The Leao da Alta Araraquarense have had 70% of their home matches successfully hit the BTTS - Yes market. Remo have a lower success rate in this market, with both teams scoring in 50% of their 20 league matches. However, they’ve still conceded in 17 of 20 games.

Remo have kept just one clean sheet in 10 matches on the road this term. Only Vitoria (24) have conceded more goals than their 21 on the road. The only two recorded head-to-heads saw both teams score, including the 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture. The fact that both sides concede regularly keeps BTTS in play.

Corinthians vs Athletico Paranaense - History backs the hosts

Both sides have been on a decent run of late, with the visitors currently placed third in the division. The hosts are eight points behind and have a chance to pull back their opponents, while denting Athletico’s hopes of any title charge. The travelling side are in good form, having won the last four games in a row.

Meanwhile, the home side have put together a four-game unbeaten run, having won three matches in a row. On paper, it’s easy to back the Athletico Paranaense to steal a win, but it’s their away form that’s a concern. They’ve won just three of their nine matches on the road this season, losing 56% of those fixtures.

While Corinthians aren’t untouchable on home soil, they haven’t lost a league fixture in their last five consecutive home outings. Historically, they hold the upper hand, having won five of the last six head-to-heads, including the reverse fixture this term. As a result, the hosts are in with a decent chance of upsetting Athletico’s ambitions.

Coritiba vs Cruzeiro - Backing goals in a tricky tie

The two mid-table teams have very similar records. Both sides have the same number of points, games won, drawn, and lost. The hosts are only one place ahead in 10th because of a goal difference that is two goals better.

On that note, it’s difficult to separate the two for a winner, but the goals market is more appealing. Coritiba have scored 11 and conceded 11 at home this season. Meanwhile, they have found the net in seven consecutive matches on their own turf. They’ve also conceded in each of their last three home fixtures, despite their BTTS-Yes stats being low at 56% in their backyard.

The visitors have seen 65% of their overall league games finish with both teams scoring. Meanwhile, six of their nine games on the road produced goals at both ends. Cruzeiro enter this fixture on the back of a seven-game streak where they’ve conceded at least once.

These teams are level on points and firmly in mid-table. Poor defensive performances have contributed to both teams falling short of the Copa Libertadores qualification places.

Cruzeiro have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per league match, while Coritiba have allowed 1.35. Those defensive numbers suggest both teams should have opportunities going forward.