Ligue 1 relegation odds: Le Havre lead the market as Strasbourg offer value

Relegation odds are shifting. Teams that barely survived last season have shown vulnerabilities, while early-season favourites appear stronger.

Odds courtesy of 10bet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Le Havre: Relegation favourites despite encouraging underlying numbers

Le Havre are now in their third Ligue 1 campaign under the guidance of Didier Digard. Since they have collected just two points after eight games, they have been favourites for the drop. After finishing 14th and 15th in the past two seasons, Le Havre are now increasingly vulnerable to relegation.

Even with new sporting director Demba Ba taking over in the summer, there was minimal investment in the club. They relied on several free transfers and loan deals. That appears to have caught up with them. 

Despite their failure to win a Ligue 1 match yet, it may not be the best idea to get behind them right now. Defensively, they’ve been poor, conceding 15 goals in eight games, just three shy of the worst defence in the league. 

However, their data at the other end of the pitch suggests they could improve, especially with 26 games still left to play. 

Their xG (expected goals) is 12.72, placing them ninth in the division, but they’ve underperformed by 4.72, the joint-biggest xG differential in Ligue 1. Additionally, their 131 shots rank them third behind Brest and Paris Saint-Germain. If they can become more clinical in front of goal, they could quickly climb the standings. 

Finally, according to Opta’s expected points table, Le Havre should be sitting 12th, six places above their current spot. Their expected points are 10, which means they’ve underperformed by losing eight points. If Digard can address their shortcomings, Le Havre could start moving away from the drop zone. 

Troyes: Underlying numbers point towards a Ligue 2 return

The reason Le Havre’s outlook is better is because of their underlying data, which is a different case for Troyes. Although they have five points from their seven games, the Trojans have the worst goal difference in the league, at -11. 

They’ve conceded 16 goals, only two fewer than the leakiest sides in Ligue 1, Auxerre and Strasbourg. 

In Troyes' case, the underlying statistics largely support the bookmakers' assessment. According to Opta’s expected points table, they are exactly where they should be, in 17th place, and heading for Ligue 2. 

Their xG of 9.72 is the fourth-worst in the league. Meanwhile, their 4.72-goal shortfall against expected goals is identical to Le Havre's, highlighting their struggles to turn chances into goals.

Their shot conversion rate is worryingly low at 4.59%, the worst across Ligue 1. Defensively, there isn’t much support for their survival, as they have conceded 16 goals from 13.60 xGA. 

Additionally, opposition teams boast a conversion rate of 17.02% against Troyes, the highest in the league, showing how easy it is to score against them. 

With glaring structural weaknesses at the back and a severe lack of creative output going forward, the odds on Troyes suffering the drop offer betting value.

Le Mans: Attacking quality offers hope despite defensive concerns

Le Mans enter this next round of fixtures one place above the relegation zone. Yet, that doesn’t automatically translate to safety, especially since they’re level on points with Strasbourg in 16th. So far this season, Le Mans have relied heavily on their attacking strengths to secure important results.

Their xG of 12.17 is the 10th best in Ligue 1. They showed their attacking quality in their 2-1 win over Lorient and hard-fought 2-2 draw with Lens. 

The Blood and Gold were also fearless in their 3-1 defeat to PSG, where they took 11 shots and had seven on target compared to the champions’ eight. Additionally, they recorded an xG of 1.43 in that game, which is highly respectable against a team of that stature. 

The problem for Patrick Videira has been their porous defence. They’ve shipped 16 goals in the league, joint-second worst in Ligue 1 from an xGA of 16.90. This suggests their defensive record is largely justified by the quality of chances they have allowed rather than simply poor fortune. 

After back-to-back promotions, you’d expect them to be favourites to head back down, but their attack has certainly rescued them so far. 

If they can continue outscoring their opponents, they should start moving away from the drop. However, whether that approach is sustainable or not is another question. With the expected points table taking them one place up to 15th, it may be best to avoid Le Mans in the relegation market. 

Angers: Strong record against relegation rivals offers hope 

With eight points from eight games, it’s understandable why Angers are in the relegation conversation. While their results have been average, they have achieved positive results against fellow relegation candidates. They’ve beaten Troyes and Auxerre and drawn with Le Havre and Lorient. 

Taking points from those teams gives them an edge in the fight for survival, particularly over the teams below them. Their attacking numbers are positive, with their xG of 12.15 placing them 11th in Ligue 1. 

However, they have scored just nine goals from those chances, which highlights a lack of finishing in the final third. 

Stephane Gilli’s men have been defensively vulnerable, as they’ve shipped 15 goals this season, the joint-third-highest in the division. 

An xGA of 14.19 suggests their issues are down to an inability to handle quality attacks. While they are lacking in that regard, they can spring results on opposition, especially in high-stakes six-pointers. 

At their current price, they're a risky option. They are too inconsistent to back for safety, but too competitive against direct rivals to offer clean value for the drop.

Auxerre: Strong recent form eases relegation fears 

Auxerre find themselves three points in front of the relegation zone, largely due to their poor start. They initially suffered defeats to Lens, Angers, and Lyon in their first eight games, which raised eyebrows about their relegation chances. However, they’ve bounced back, losing just one of their last five matches. 

The Burgundians have a highly effective front line that has delivered 12 goals, the joint-eighth-best in the division. Their xG of 12.82 suggests they’ve been taking their chances and have deservedly scored a dozen goals. 

It’s their rear guard that’s the concern, as they’ve shipped 18 goals this season, the joint-most in Ligue 1. Their opponents have also enjoyed a shot conversion rate of 15.65%, second only to Troyes. 

Auxerre have slightly overperformed on some metrics, but they’re safely above the relegation zone. The expected points table has them in 10th place, two places above their actual position. If they continue to produce similar attacking displays in the coming rounds, their offensive upside should comfortably offset their leaky defence. As a result, backing Auxerre to go down currently represents poor value, and bettors should look elsewhere.

Strasbourg: Evident struggles make them relegation candidates

Strasbourg currently offer the most value to go down, but their results have been of a team heading for Ligue 2. They have collected just seven points from eight matches and remain winless in their last five outings. 

Their recent form is particularly concerning, having suffered four consecutive defeats against Paris FC, Nice, PSG and Rennes.

Opta’s expected points table has them rooted to the bottom of the Ligue 1 table with 6.6 points, the lowest figure in the league. They have generated an xG of 9.53, the third-lowest total in the division. 

Strasbourg have scored 2.47 goals more than their xG suggests, the second-largest positive differential in Ligue 1. This indicates that their goal return has been driven largely by clinical finishing rather than a consistent ability to create clear-cut opportunities.

At the back, the numbers are even more alarming. Strasbourg have shipped 18 goals, tying them for the worst defensive record in Ligue 1 this season. A 15.63 xGA confirms these woes are structural, not just bad luck.

While only Marseille have faced more shots than Strasbourg’s 131, no other club in Ligue 1 have faced more shots on target than the Black and White’s 49. 

Their on-pitch struggles have been accompanied by significant changes behind the scenes, including managerial upheaval and numerous player departures. This level of squad turnover could make it difficult for Strasbourg to establish the stability needed to turn their season around. 

Although a similarly poor run of form last season was followed by a comfortable eighth-place finish, expecting history to repeat with a different squad would be risky. Backing Strasbourg for relegation could offer value, given their current performances and underlying weaknesses.