After breaking the stronghold of La Liga’s ‘Big Three’, Villarreal will be desperate to prove their 3rd place finish in 25-26 was no accident.
| La Liga top four finish market | Odds |
| Athletic Club | 3.75 |
| Real Betis | 3.75 |
| Villarreal | 4.00 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
- Find out our suggested bookmakers for odds and promotions: Hollywoodbets and Easybet!
- Want to know more about South Africa's best betting sites?
- Find out about other exciting betting sites with welcome bonuses in South Africa.
Why the ‘Big Three’ still set the La Liga baseline
The ‘Big Three’ in this market offer precious little value, at least at the start of the 26-27 La Liga season.
The final table from last season explains why. Barcelona won the title with 94 points, Real Madrid followed on 86, and Atlético Madrid still finished fourth on 69.
Villarreal did break into that group by taking third with 72 points. However, the broader hierarchy at the top remains clear.
Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid have all finished in the top four in each of the last 14 La Liga seasons. That’s why their short prices leave little appeal here.
That leaves one spot available in the bookmakers’ eyes. We explore the three most likely teams to break into the top four this season.
Why Villarreal seem like the logical early-season choice
Villarreal enjoyed their strongest La Liga campaign since 2007/08 last season. They finished third, matching the kind of return that made Manuel Pellegrini's runners-up side famous.
That form makes them the most fancied team outside the ‘Big Three’ to break into the top four again. Their 26.67% probability reflects it. The concern is how little has changed in the squad and how much has changed above it.
Only Peter Gulácsi has arrived from Leipzig, leaving the Hungarian and Luiz Júnior to settle the goalkeeping question between them. The rest of the group is largely untouched this summer.
Iñigo Pérez steps in with Rayo Vallecano experience but no track record at this altitude. Add Champions League football, and the margin for error narrows sharply.
A prolonged Champions League campaign is also relevant when comparing Villarreal against some of their top four rivals.
Can Real Betis juggle La Liga and the Champions League?
Betis secured direct Champions League qualification in 2025/26. Yet, that reward has now become a scheduling burden.
Manuel Pellegrini has made European football habitual at the Benito Villamarín. However, he has yet to convert it into a top-four finish.
Betis last managed one in 2004/05, two decades ago. This summer’s recruitment has been sensible rather than spectacular. Facundo Bernal from Fluminense and Fran García from Real Madrid headline roughly €23.15m of outlay. Further additions are expected to deepen a bench that will be rotated from September onwards.
Thursday-to-Sunday football has proven difficult even for teams with greater resources than Betis. At a 26.67% probability, backing them means trusting not only their quality but also their ability to handle a demanding fixture calendar.
Athletic Club could benefit from a lack of European obligations
Athletic are the only contenders here without European commitments. After finishing a disappointing 12th last season, that free midweek makes up the bulk of their case.
The complication is squad building. The Basque-only recruitment policy leaves them operating in a tiny market.
Éder García is the sole arrival so far, supplemented by returning loanees. Meanwhile, Unai Gómez, Urko Izeta and Mikel Vesga have all left this summer.
Edin Terzić replaces Ernesto Valverde after four seasons at the Bilbao helm. Terzić brings an aggressive blueprint. His Dortmund sides averaged 3.26 and 3.74 goals per game in the Bundesliga. That’s comfortably above La Liga's 2.69 goals per game average last term.
If he finds attacking solutions, a 25% probability for a top-four finish has appeal. However, the squad depth cannot be compared to what he had at Dortmund.