Arsenal’s penalty defeat to League Two Fleetwood Town has blown the EFL Cup wide open ahead of the quarter-finals.
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Manchester City: Favourites, but by no means the value pick
Manchester City are the current holders of the EFL Cup. They landed their ninth EFL Cup in 2025/26, defeating eventual Premier League champions Arsenal at Wembley.
City have featured in ten EFL Cup finals and lost only one, way back in 1973/74. With the Gunners dumped out of the last 16 following a penalty shootout with Fleetwood, the bookmakers believe Enzo Maresca’s side are favourites to retain the trophy.
The history books aren’t on their side, however. The EFL Cup hasn’t been retained by any team in the last five seasons. City were the last team to defend it, having won a quartet of EFL Cups in succession between 2018 and 2021.
The quarter-final draw has been kind to City. They face League One side Bradford City at the Etihad in the quarter-finals. However, City needed penalties to overcome in-form Brighton in the last 16.
Fixture congestion could yet take its toll on Maresca’s men, as they chase success in the Premier League and Champions League. Squad rotation is likely. Reserve players like Allan, Floyd Samba, Vitor Reis, Geronimo Rulli and Ryan McAidoo are likely to be involved again.
They are the team to beat, but Arsenal’s inability to shake off Fleetwood with a rotated squad should serve as a major flag. City don’t represent good betting value in this market right now.
Liverpool: Patchy home form and a testing quarter-final tie
Andoni Iraola’s Reds are currently second favourites to lift the EFL Cup this season. Liverpool have already dispatched two fellow Premier League outfits in Chelsea and Spurs on the way to the quarter-finals.
Their last-eight tie is far from straightforward, however. It also brings Iraola head-to-head with his former employers Bournemouth. The Cherries visit Anfield next month, a team they only narrowly defeated 1-0 away from home earlier this season.
Bournemouth have picked up in recent weeks, having won their last six games in all competitions. Liverpool’s home form has been far from solid. They’ve lost twice at Anfield already this term. Also, they’ve kept just two clean sheets in front of their own fans.
Nevertheless, Liverpool have won 40% of the last five EFL Cup competitions. The Reds’ squad is deep enough to cope with a cup run. However, with players to keep fresh and a top-four finish to prioritise, the competition is unlikely to be Iraola’s top priority.
Compared with City, who have a far easier route to the semi-finals, Liverpool have a much tougher assignment. Liverpool cannot be ruled out, but their current odds offer little value.
Everton: The clear value bet in the EFL Cup winner market
The Toffees are the most obvious value in the EFL Cup winner market going into the quarter-final stage.
There are two obvious reasons. First, they head to League Two strugglers Fleetwood Town, the lowest-ranked team left in the competition. Although Fleetwood overcame a heavily rotated Arsenal, there’s no guarantee the Lancashire club will have the same outcome against David Moyes’ men.
Everton are the only Premier League outfit left in the competition that don’t have European football commitments this term. This could be a significant advantage. Of the eight quarter-finalists last season, only Manchester City and Crystal Palace have made it this far again, and both are competing in Europe.
Everton’s last major trophy was their FA Cup triumph in 1995. Moyes will be eager to end that 31-year wait for silverware in his second spell in charge of the club.
Moyes has proven he can manage even a small squad. Also, last week’s 3-0 win over Newcastle will give his players plenty of confidence.
Everton have the fifth-highest average rating in the Premier League this season with FotMob. The Toffees have also created the fourth-most big chances and are joint top with Manchester City for the most big chances missed. This suggests Everton could be even higher than their current 7th position in the league.
History isn’t on Fleetwood’s side. It’s been eight years since a team outside the top two divisions reached the EFL Cup semi-finals. Burton Albion were eventually thrashed 10-0 in aggregate over two legs by Manchester City.
That should give Everton plenty of confidence to reach the semi-finals and potentially the final at Wembley. This is the pick we like most.
AFC Bournemouth: In-form and dangerous in the final third
Bournemouth are currently the Premier League’s in-form side. They’ve won six matches in succession in all competitions, scoring 16 goals and keeping six clean sheets. Marco Rose is finally getting his ideas across after a difficult start following Andoni Iraola’s departure.
Defeating AC Milan in the Europa League and Manchester United at Old Trafford 3-0 in quick succession is an impressive achievement. However, the Cherries narrowly missed out on Champions League qualification by three points last term, so that’s not a major surprise.
The Cherries have both the quality and confidence to make a serious impression in the competition. That is reflected in the outright market, where they are fourth favourites despite being handed a difficult quarter-final draw against Liverpool.
Their attacking output hasn’t been in question in 2026/27. According to FotMob, they sit third in the Premier League for xG generated (15.8). They also average the fourth-highest shots on target per game (5.0).
However, they still have the challenge of overcoming Liverpool at Anfield. Although the Reds have been far from convincing at home, they still carry plenty of experience in this competition. Bournemouth only lost narrowly to Liverpool earlier this season, showing they have the quality to challenge them again.
Bournemouth are the highest-priced of the four teams in the EFL Cup winner odds, but their current form is hard to ignore. A small, speculative stake on them to see off Liverpool is the best way to approach them, with Everton remaining our top pick.