Our betting expert expects a classic African encounter here, with Mali threatening to knock out Senegal, but with the Lions overcoming the Eagles.
Best bets for Mali vs Senegal
- 1x2 - Senegal at odds of 1.60 on Betway
- Senegal overs/ unders - Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.91 on Betway
- Anytime goalscorer - Sadio Mane at odds of 2.85 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Mali 1-3 Senegal
- Goalscorers prediction: Mali: Lassine Sinayoko; Senegal: Sadio Mane, Pape Gueye, Ibrahim Mbaye
Mali’s progression to the quarter-finals of the Africa Cup of Nations has been unconventional. The Eagles have yet to win a match inside regulation time, having drawn all three of their group games.
They had Woyo Coulibaly sent off in the 26th minute the last time out, leading to a 1-0 deficit against the Carthage Eagles. However, Mali were able to equalise via a penalty in stoppage time. After enduring 30 minutes of extra time, they eventually secured their quarter-final place via a penalty shootout. However, now that they’re in the last eight, they will give it their all against Senegal.
The current number one nation in Africa have lived up to their ranking throughout this tournament. They advanced from the group stage with two 3-0 victories and a draw against a competitive DR Congo side.
In their round-of-16 fixture, Pape Thiaw’s men were surprised when Sudan scored the first goal after just six minutes. However, it didn’t take long for the 2021 AFCON champions to equalise, securing a 2-1 lead by halftime. This resilience will be vital as the Lions of Teranga aim to secure their second continental title in Morocco.
Probable lineups for Mali vs Senegal
Mali expected lineup: Diarra, H. Traore, Diaby, Camara, Dante, Bissouma, Dieng, Sangare, L. Coulibaly, Doumbia, Sinayoko
Senegal expected lineup: Mendy, Diatta, Seck, Niakhate, Jakobs, Diarra, I. Gueye, P. Gueye, Sarr, Jackson, Mane
Running out of luck
Although they reached this phase of the competition, Malian fans should be concerned about their team’s lack of ability to turn draws into victories. Not considering their penalty triumph in their last match, Mali are on a run of five consecutive draws.
Meanwhile, Senegal have been highly effective, winning four of their last five international matches and drawing once. They also boast an impressive record in the Africa Cup of Nations, remaining unbeaten in regulation time across their last 15 tournament games, with 10 wins and five draws.
One of those draws resulted in a penalty shootout loss to Côte d’Ivoire in 2023. Historically, Mali’s last three AFCON quarter-finals have ended in draws after 90 minutes, two of which went to penalties.
The one-time champions have enough firepower in attack to win this match in regulation time. They’ve not lost any of the last 10 head-to-heads, going on to win six of those meetings. Their most recent clashes in 2019 ended in victory for Senegal, which is a likely outcome in this match.
- Mali vs Senegal Betting Tip 1: 1x2 - Senegal at odds of 1.60 on Betway
Firing on all cylinders
Senegal possesses significant depth in their attacking lineup, featuring Nicholas Jackson and Pape Sarr, led by captain Sadio Mane. The team have already scored 10 goals in four matches, maintaining an average of 2.5 goals per game.
The Lions of Teranga scored exactly three goals in three of their AFCON games so far, which equates to 75% of the time. Furthermore, Thiaw’s charges scored a minimum of two goals in eight of their last 10 internationals (80%).
Senegal have enjoyed similar success against Mali, having scored at least twice in their previous two meetings. In fact, the 2021 AFCON champions scored two goals or more in five of the last six head-to-heads.
- Mali vs Senegal Betting Tip 2: Senegal overs/ unders - Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.91 on Betway
Mane to score again
Senegal’s ability to score from various positions was demonstrated in their last match, where midfielder Pape Gueye scored a brace. However, one player who always finds a way to get involved is Sadio Mane.
The former Liverpool forward recorded two assists in that last-16 match, but he didn’t find the back of the net. However, he has already scored in the 1-1 draw against DR Congo.
As a result, Mane now has four goal involvements in his last three internationals for his country (G1, A3). He remains motivated to add to his goal tally as he leads his team into this highly anticipated quarter-final against Mali.
- Mali vs Senegal Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Sadio Mane at odds of 2.85 on Betway