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Summer business makes this side the value pick in La Liga top four odds
Joseph Crann

Summer business makes this side the value pick in La Liga top four odds

Athletic Bilbao
LaLiga
Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla
Sevilla

Athletic Bilbao have mostly had a good summer, and seem well-placed to challenge for a top-four spot in La Liga once again.

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Keeping Nico Williams in the team was crucial, but the biggest advantage is that Ernesto Valverde has maintained last season’s squad.

Athletic BilbaoOdds
Top four finish2.62
To beat Sevilla on opening day1.66

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Athletic Bilbao’s impressive summer

After scoring 18 goals and providing assists last season, it seemed certain that Bilbao would lose 23-year-old Nico Williams this summer. He appeared to be close to joining Barcelona before the club had announced that he signed a new contract. It was a significant moment for the club.

They have also managed to keep Oihan Sancet, Gorka Guruzeta, and Inaki Williams. This means that all four of last season’s top scorers will remain in the team for the 2025/26 campaign. These players scored 47 goals in total last season, and will be eager to improve even more in the coming months.

Valverde has successfully guided them to a fourth-place finish in 2024/25, albeit on goal difference. He will aim to do that again with Jesus Areso and Robert Navarro joining. They are unlikely to overtake Barcelona, Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid. However, they are currently the favourite to join them in the top four.

Athletic’s top-four finish was not by chance, as they performed consistently well throughout the season. They built on their momentum from winning the Copa del Rey-winning 2023/24 campaign. Although there will be different expectations this time around, they have the quality to meet them.

They’re definitely worth considering for another push for the Champions League.

Lehoiak’s top-four credentials

Barca, Los Blancos and Atletico are clearly expected to take three of the top four spots. However, the final space is open, and Zuri-Gorriak are the bookies’ favourites. They're closely followed by Villarreal and Real Betis, while Real Sociedad have an outside chance. Therefore, the race for the spot could be very interesting.

A good point for Valverde is that he’s already seen his side compete well in many competitions. They reached the Europa League semi-finals last season while also playing in LaLiga. Therefore, they shouldn’t struggle in that sense. The UCL is a higher level, but the principle is the same - they can handle the pressure.

Moreover, the underlying data is good, as Athletic almost met their xG of 1.45, having scored 1.42 goals. Additionally, they had the best defensive record in the division, which is a good base to start from. Conceding fewer goals than Atletico Madrid is difficult.

The retention of young Williams is probably the biggest factor. His efforts for club and country make him one of the brightest young talents, him sticking around is a big feather in their cap. If he can replicate last season’s form, or even improve on it, then Lehoiak have a great chance.

And the attacker isn’t the only one with room for growth, either. The bulk of Valverde’s most-used players last season were under the age of 30, and some of their top contributors are 24 or younger. With another season of experience now under their belt, there’s scope to take things to a new level.

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