Could betting on their relegation offer good value?
Girona have been one of the surprise packages this season, but for all the wrong reasons. Relegation is now a very real fear.
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Girona Have Had an Enormous Fall Off
One year ago Girona were looking forward to a famous season that was set to end in a top-four finish. It did end by securing Champions League football, and no one thought this season would go the way it has. However, with five games remaining, they’re in the relegation zone.
Earlier this season, things were going much better for Girona. After beating Alaves in January, they were seventh in La Liga. But since then, their performance has dropped badly and now they are in danger of being relegated for the first time since the 2018/19 season.
Girona’s form has been very poor since that win against Alves. In the 13 La Liga games they’ve played since, they’ve earned only 13 points. During that time, only Real Valladolid, who are likely to be relegated, have collected fewer.
That’s the main reason behind their failure. Also, they had another disappointing result on Thursday night against Leganes. They played against 10 men for most of the game, but only managed a 1-1 draw. With Leganes in the relegation zone, they missed a big chance to pull clear.
The only positive thing is that the draw didn’t make their situation worse. It would be a big setback if Girona were to be relegated. They are owned by the City Football Group, the same group that owns Manchester City, and having a team relegated would look bad for them.
It wouldn’t look good for their coach Michel, as well. He’s previously been tipped to be Pep Gurdiola’s successor, but a relegation on his CV would hurt his chances. It’s certainly a possibility for Girona though, who have some tough games remaining.
One of their remaining five games is against already-relegated Valladolid. However, the other four are against strong sides, all of whom are in the European race. Their fixture list is tough, so they could be a value pick for relegation.
Is Backing Against Girona the Way Forward?
Based on their current form, it's unlikely that Girona can currently win any match. Yet surprisingly, bookmakers have made them favourites in their next game against Mallorca, a team competing for European places.
However, the stats suggest otherwise as Girona are winless in 11 La Liga games. On top of that, they’ve lost seven of those. Even playing at home wouldn’t turn things around, as well since they are winless in their last five home league games.
This gives good betting value on Mallorca. There could also be value in betting on Villarreal once the odds are released. Out of 15 games against teams in the top half of the table, they’ve won only one, drawn four, and lost ten.
Their poor results against the league’s better sides certainly make their remaining games even more difficult. Falling to beat Leganes left them in a bad spot. Four of their last five games are against European-chasing sides. Given this difficult schedule, they seem to be a value pick for relegation.
With a tough fixture list, they could very easily fall deeper into trouble. They’re only three points above the drop zone going into the weekend. And since they play on Monday this week, they might already be in the drop zone by the time they play.
Despite all this, the betting odds still predict Girona are unlikely to go down. However, considering the points mentioned above, this could be an opportunity that smart bettors should take advantage of.