Our betting expert suggests this Durban July could see an upset on the cards. However, that could also extend to the Club World Cup quarter-finals.
| Durban July Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Eight On Eighteen | 1.43 |
| Confederate | 33.33 |
| HDJ Eight On Eighteen Special | Odds |
|---|---|
| Eight On Eighteen to run 8th | 8.33 |
| Eight On Eighteen to run 18th | 18.18 |
| Club World Cup Quarter-Final Winners | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.96 |
| PSG | 2.21 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 4.90 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Is there a hidden gem in the field?
Bookmakers haven’t paid much attention to a runner that’s been in magnificent form, that has finished either first or second in his last seven races. Even though he has returned from a three-month break, he is in form to go the distance.
Eight On Eighteen’s involvement in this year’s Durban July has been a popular topic in recent months. However, the young galloper out of Justin Snaith’s stable was confirmed to make his first appearance at the showpiece when the final field was revealed last week.
The three-year-old is the overwhelming favourite for Race Number 7 on Saturday, especially after looking excellent when he clinched the Grade 1 Daily News 2000. However, he will be carrying 57kgs, which could be tough for his age and may be the only downside.
He’ll be running out of gate 11 and is expected to show off towards the finish line. SA Champion jockey Richard Fourie is aiming for his personal fourth Durban July win, having secured it in 2014 with Legislate, 2019 with Do It Again, and in 2020 with Belgarion.
It’s worth noting that all three of Fourie’s victories have been for Justin Snaith. Therefore, Eight On Eighteen is the horse to back if you want a guaranteed victory.
While on the topic of favourites, Chelsea might enjoy that status when they clash with Palmeiras earlier on Saturday morning. By the time the winning horse crosses the finish line at Greyville, the Blues could already have their Club World Cup semi-final spot booked.
Return to the winning scene
Last year’s winner, Oriental Charm, returns to the scene of his triumph, but there’s no doubt that the biggest threat to his crown is Eight On Eighteen. However, JP van der Merwe will seriously challenge him throughout the race.
Drawing gate 1 means that he should comfortably get in front in the early stages of the race and won’t spend a lot of energy for the finish. He had a strong return at the Grade 1 Gold Challenge as he placed second by 0.20 lengths.
After his five-month layoff, Oriental Charm should be ready for this year’s Durban July. He’s won three of his last five races and finished second in his last two. He finished second to Eight On Eighteen in January, but the current champion is still expected to place in the top four this Saturday.
Talking about winners, UEFA Champions League holders, PSG, will be eager to improve upon the horrible form that they displayed against Bayern Munich as they aim for their fourth trophy in the 2024/25 season.
While the statistics aren’t in the Germans favour, they are probably the most improved team around the world. With confidence at an all-time high in the camp, Luis Enrique’s men are tipped to ease past the Bavarians on Saturday night.
Considering Confederate
As a horse with natural gate speed, it’s strange that Confederate hasn’t been in the conversation for the Durban July. He led for a long while, only to come in second in the end at the Egoli Mile in June.
Moreover, each of his last seven races has seen him place either first or second. His previous win saw him grab a soft lead and then generate extra pace to get ahead of Fire Attack and win the Grade 1 TAB SA Classic with a distance of 1800m.
Former dual SA champion jockey Warren Kennedy will travel from New Zealand to partner with Confederate. Despite having a Durban July ride in 2004, Kennedy has never won the title. Considering his weight of 53.5kgs, he provides the value bet for Saturday’s main race.
An outsider’s chance is also what Borussia Dortmund have against Real Madrid. It’s a repeat of last season’s UEFA Champions League final, and the Germans will be keen to settle that score.
Moreover, the Bellingham brothers will go up against each other, making it interesting to watch. With Los Blancos trying to find their feet under Xabi Alonso, Dortmund could clinch a surprise win on Saturday night.
A weekend for upsets?
The beauty of sport lies in the ability of the underdog to surpass all expectations. Although it rarely happens, there are enough statistics to back a genuine play for the underdogs ahead of this Durban July and Club World Cup quarter-finals weekend.