We’ve chosen three outright picks ahead of the final two matches, including Atalanta, Barcelona, and Benfica.
| Champions League outright picks | Odds |
|---|---|
| Atalanta to finish top eight | 1.60 |
| Barcelona to finish top eight | 1.90 |
| Benfica to finish between 9th and 24th | 2.50 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Atalanta to finish top eight
Atalanta had a terrible start to the season under Ivan Juric, and in November, the club decided to part ways with him. They hired Raffaele Palladino as his replacement, and the upturn was almost immediate. La Dea have won nine of 11 matches since their loss to Napoli in his first game in charge.
The Italians are fifth in the Champions League table ahead of Matchday seven, with only one loss. With games against Athletic Club (H) and Union Saint-Gilloise (A) ahead, they’ll back themselves for six points. Hiring Palladino as their new manager has significantly increased their chances of reaching the Round of 16.
Serie A rivals Inter Milan are below Atalanta in the table,and will also be eager to finish in the top eight. I Nerazzurri have a much tougher schedule, as they face Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund. Atalanta have one of the easier run-ins, and we’re backing them to get the job done.
Barcelona to finish top eight
As good as Barcelona have been domestically, their UCL campaign has been somewhat inconsistent. Hansi Flick’s men sit four points ahead of Real Madrid in La Liga, and recently clinched the Supercopa title. La Blaugrana are also on an 11-game winning run across all competitions since losing to Chelsea in November.
However, Barca are two points off the top eight going into the final two games of the league phase. The Catalans are fortunate as they are set to play against Slavia Prague and FC Copenhagen in their final two matches.
Six points should be enough to move up into the Round of 16 places, especially given the run-ins of those above them. We’re expecting a number of those ahead of Flick’s men to drop points, and that will be to Barca’s benefit. It seems like there’s value in them, given their remaining matches.
Benfica to finish between 9th and 24th
Jose Mourinho has won plenty of games since he took on the job at Benfica, but it’s been a tough few weeks. The Portuguese giants lost more ground in the Primeira Liga race and exited the Allianz Cup and Taca de Portugal. Progression in the UCL is currently their only hope of making something of their 2025/26 campaign.
As things stand, Águias sit just outside the play-off places, but only by one point. They have a difficult schedule, as they play against Juventus and Real Madrid, but at least the second is at home. Though the odds are against them, Mourinho could prove decisive once again.
Benfica probably won’t need to win both games in order to slip into the top 24, since even two points could be enough. Plenty of those in touching distance are expected to drop points, and Os Encarnados don’t lose at home too often. With some inspiration from their ‘Special One’, the men from Lisbon will be able to clinch a spot in the play-offs.