Unai Emery’s side are making another strong push for Champions League qualification, despite poor xG numbers.
| Aston Villa markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| To beat Man Utd | 2.15 |
| Top-four finish | 2.20 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
- Find out our suggested bookmakers for odds and promotions: Hollywoodbets and Easybet!
- Want to know more about South Africa's best betting sites?
- Find out about other exciting betting sites with welcome bonuses in South Africa.
What’s really going on with Villa’s low xG numbers?
Aston Villa have won nine consecutive matches in all competitions and 15 of their last 17. However, they’ve only outperformed their xG in six of their 16 Premier League fixtures.
The West Midlands side have scored 25 goals in the English top flight from just 16.7 xG. Only Tottenham have exceeded their xG total by a bigger margin.
Normally, this would suggest a team overachieving. However, in Villa’s case, there are many other factors to take into account.
Firstly, a dreadful start to the season saw them create few chances in their opening matches. They averaged just 0.7 xG and 0.2 goals per 90 minutes across the first five Premier League matchdays. That was despite having one of the most favourable starts to the campaign.
Over the last five league outings, they’ve averaged 1.5 expected goals and registered 2.1 xG against leaders Arsenal. That’s a clear sign that their figures are already heading in the right direction. Midfielder Youri Tielemans’ return from injury has contributed to that recent improvement.
Their above-average ability when it comes to shooting from range is another factor. Villa have scored 10 goals from outside the penalty area, the most in the Premier League. Their average shot distance is the fifth highest at 17.4 yards.
Morgan Rogers has scored five goals from 1.7 expected goals. He is outperforming his xG by a bigger margin than any other Premier League player. However, he has also exceeded his xG tally in each of the last two seasons.
Better players and better teams do frequently find ways to outperform their xG tallies over long periods. Villa have consistently done so throughout Emery’s reign.
They manage games well and tend to drop deeper in the closing stages when they have a lead. That can have a detrimental impact on their xG numbers, relative to other teams who chase more goals.
Can they sustain a top-four challenge?
There are clear parallels between this season’s Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest last season. The East Midlands outfit finished the 2024/25 campaign with an xG difference of -3.4. However, only a final-day defeat to Chelsea denied them a top-four finish.
Villa were also in the mix on the final weekend. Only goal difference denied them a place in Europe’s elite competition again at the end of another strong overall campaign.
Their ability to perform to a consistently high level ever since Emery arrived in 2022 suggests a top-four challenge is sustainable.
The Basque coach kicked off his reign more than three years ago with a 3-1 home win over Man Utd. The Red Devils are back at Villa Park on Sunday, and there’s every chance we’ll get a similar outcome.
The visitors continue to struggle defensively. They’ll be without Casemiro, Bryan Mbeumo, Noussair Mazraoui, and Amad Diallo in Birmingham. Given their current nine-match winning streak, Villa are well-placed to triumph, with an implied probability of 46.5%.
They are also given a 45.5% chance of finishing in the top four. Victory this weekend would open up a 10-point advantage on their opponents, one of their most likely rivals in that race.
Liverpool are still struggling, while the likes of Newcastle and Tottenham are already in danger of dropping out of top-four contention. That suggests Villa are in a very strong position to secure Champions League football in 2026/27.
Bettors concerned about those low xG figures should be aware they finished with an xG difference of only +3.4 in 2023/24. That was enough for fourth place, and the Villans are capable of defying their underlying data again this term.