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Hugo Broos’ Bafana Bafana are in a do-or-die situation in AFCON ahead of the clash with neighbours Zimbabwe

They need to ensure that they finish in the top two - or at least as one of the four best third-placed teams across six groups - to secure progression to the last 16 of the competition.

After their unfortunate 1-0 loss to Egypt last time out, Bafana are in a precarious position, and meet the Warriors, who are in an even more desperate position.   

Zimbabwe only has a solitary point earned through their 1-1 draw with Angola in their last match, and must go for a win against Bafana to stand any chance of qualifying.

Having easily progressed to the knockout stages in the previous edition in the Ivory Coast and making it as far as the final three, Broos’ Bafana are eager to do better this time.

Here, GOAL previews the crucial final group match for Bafana against the Warriors and also looks at the permutations.

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    The permutations

    Bafana can finish level with Egypt on six points if they beat the Warriors and the Pharaohs are shocked by Angola in their match.  

    However, Egypt's superior head-to-head record would see them finish above Bafana in this case, as this is the primary tiebreaker rather than goal difference.

    Broos’ men will be leapfrogged by the Warriors and Angola if they lose to their neighbours on Monday. However, if they draw, they will be assured of second place even if Angola beats Egypt.

    There is also a possibility that goal difference could be important, given the fact that three of the four Group B fixtures which have been played so far were decided by a single goal, while the other was a draw.

    However, that will only come into play as a tiebreaker between teams who cannot be separated on head-to-head records.

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    Broos to fix mistakes

    Broos’ approach against Egypt has been heavily criticised, with many believing the veteran Belgian tactician was too defensive and lacked ambition against an Egyptian team that was there for the taking.

    The retired defender started the match with three defensive midfielders in Teboho Mokoena, Thalente Mbatha, and Siphephelo Sithole, a move that was seen as extremely negative.  

    He changed one of the midfielders and introduced the more attacking Sipho Mbule in the second half; however, this was after Egypt had gone a man down.  

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    A draw is enough

    Having already won their opening match against Angola and registering three points, Bafana only need one more point to ensure they progress. 

    Nevertheless, it would be ill-advised for Broos’ men to go into the game with a negative approach, looking to avoid defeat rather than going for broke, as it could easily go the other way.

    Previous meetings between the two teams suggest a highly competitive match could be in store, with the rivalry between the teams set to add to the expected drama.   

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    A wounded Bafana

    The fact that Bafana lost their previous match against Egypt through a contentious penalty, and were also denied what they felt was a legitimate penalty, means they will be in a bad mood.

    This should spell danger for Zimbabwe as Broos’ men could prove an even bigger threat and an insurmountable mountain to climb.  

    Bafana had been on a hot streak since the previous AFCON, and the defeat will likely serve as motivation to start another monster run as they look to go deep in the competition.

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    Players to watch

    For South Africa, a player like Mokoena is always a big threat, and his contribution is always key for Bafana. Whenever the Mamelodi Sundowns man is on his game, Broos’ men often get over the line.

    Oswin Appollis is another key player for Bafana, as he proved in the opening game against Angola when he opened the scoring with a sweetly struck shot into the bottom corner. 

    For Zimbabwe, Knowledge Musona’s wealth of experience often proves pivotal, and he will need to be on top of his game alongside the likes of Marvellous Nakamba, Teenage Hadebe, and Washington Arubi.

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