Why Aston Villa Are the Value Bet for Premier League Outright Market

Villa’s fixture schedule in May offers a great opportunity for Unai Emery’s men to end the 2024/25 Premier League season strongly inside the top six.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Villa Have Overcome Their New Year Blip

It’s been a fun but challenging 2024/25 Premier League season for Unai Emery. After qualifying for this year’s Champions League, finding a way to battle on domestic and European fronts has been the biggest task for Villa.

This is new territory for Villa. They aren’t used to playing elite-level European football in midweek and then competing in the biggest domestic league on the planet days later.

It felt like Villa had found their groove by the end of 2024. A hat-trick of home wins in December rounded off the year in style, followed by more wins in early January.

However, a poor patch between mid-January and late-February saw Emery’s side fall out of top-six contention. A defeat at Wolves, followed by a 1-1 home draw with Ipswich, was the height of their blip.

They bounced back on 22nd February to end a five-game winless run by defeating Chelsea 2-1 at Villa Park. They’ve since gone on to win four of the next five games, moving to within three points of third-placed Nottingham Forest.

Easter Period Could Derail Villa’s Top-Six Bid

Villa’s away form has been the bedrock of their recent upturn in fortunes. They’ve landed a hat-trick of away wins at Brentford, Brighton and Southampton without conceding a single goal.

A narrow 2-1 home win over a flagging Nottingham Forest also played a part in bringing Villa back into the top-six race. 

However, their ambitions could still be derailed before the end of April. They host in-form Newcastle United this weekend, before a tricky midweek trip to Manchester City.

Both sides are within a point or two of Villa right now. However, defeats in each of these games could see City and the Magpies open up a four or five-point gap with four games to play in May.

May Holds the Key to European Football Next Season

Providing Villa come through their upcoming tests against Newcastle and Man City relatively unscathed, their final four games next month seem appealing.

Their final two home games are against a Fulham side that are all but out of the battle for European qualification and Tottenham, whose season is virtually over.

They also travel to Bournemouth, who are also likely to be out of top-six contention by early May based on their recent form. Their season ends with a trip to Old Trafford, against a Manchester United side that have averaged just 1.31 points per game at home this season.

This is an unthinkable statistic for long-time United fans. However, it suggests Villa have a great opportunity if they need a final-day win to secure a top-six spot.

Which Team is Most Vulnerable to Missing Out on the Top Six?

With Villa currently in seventh place, if we believe Emery’s side have what it takes to get back into the top six, that means one team is going to have to miss out.

The pressure is definitely rising on Enzo Maresca. Across their last eight games, the Blues have averaged just 1.38 points per game.

Frustrating draws with Brentford and Ipswich have prevented Chelsea from building momentum after their London derby win over Spurs.

They also have a tough run-in, with the average points-per-game value of their upcoming opponents sitting at 1.65.

The Blues travel to Fulham for a west London derby this weekend, before hosting a resurgent Everton and title-chasing Liverpool.

They also have challenging away trips to Newcastle and Nottingham Forest, the latter of which is on the final day of the season. This could ultimately turn into a decisive clash to determine who clinches a top-six spot.

Given the hundreds of millions spent on the Chelsea team, Maresca is under huge pressure to deliver Champions League football next season. There are signs his young team are beginning to crack under the weight of expectation from the club’s hierarchy.